Annales Geophysicae
Annales Geophysicae
ANGEO
Articles | Volume 42, issue 2
Articles | Volume 42, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 42, issue 2
Regular paper
 | Highlight paper
 | 
24 Sep 2024
Regular paper | Highlight paper |  | 24 Sep 2024

Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change

Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh

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Cited articles

Appleton, E. V. and Beynon, W. J. G.: The Application of Ionospheric Data to Radio-Communications Problems: Part I, Proc. Physcs. Soc., 52, 518–33, 1940. a, b, c, d, e
Bilitza, D. and Eyfrig, R.: Modell Zur Darstellung Der Hone Des F2-maximums Mit Hilfe Des M(3000)F2-Wertes Der CCIR, Kleinheubacher Berichte, 21, 167–174, 1978. a
Bilitza, D., Sheikh, N. M., and Eyfrig, R.: A Global Model for the Height of the F2-peak Using M3000 Values from the CCIR Numerical Map, Telecommun. J., 46, 549–553, 1979. a, b, c, d, e, f
Booker, H. G. and Seaton, S. L.: The Relation between Actual and Virtual Ionospheric Height, Phys. Rev., 57, 58–76, 1940. a, b, c
Bradley, P. A. and Dudeney, R. J.: A Simple Model Representation of the Electron Concentration of the Ionosphere, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 35, 2131–2146, https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(73)90132-3, 1973. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
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Editor-in-chief
The topic of long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere, since Roble and Dickinson's seminal 1989 paper, remains relevant and current with ongoing controversies. Some of these issues have been resolved over time, while others have become even more controversial. This paper makes a significant contribution to this important topic. The authors have demonstrated that at least one of the widely used established empirical formulae for the ionospheric peak height, hmF2, introduces diurnal, seasonal, and long-term biases into hmF2 estimates. These biases are of similar, if not greater, magnitude than those expected from the long-term cooling resulting from increased greenhouse gases concentration.
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Short summary
Long-term change in the ionosphere are expected due to increases in greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Empirical formulae are used to estimate height. Through comparison with independent data we show that there are seasonal and long-term biases introduced by the empirical model. We conclude that estimates of long-term changes in ionospheric height need to account for these biases.
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