Articles | Volume 42, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024
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24 Sep 2024
Regular paper | Highlight paper |  | 24 Sep 2024

Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change

Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh

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Editor-in-chief
The topic of long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere, since Roble and Dickinson's seminal 1989 paper, remains relevant and current with ongoing controversies. Some of these issues have been resolved over time, while others have become even more controversial. This paper makes a significant contribution to this important topic. The authors have demonstrated that at least one of the widely used established empirical formulae for the ionospheric peak height, hmF2, introduces diurnal, seasonal, and long-term biases into hmF2 estimates. These biases are of similar, if not greater, magnitude than those expected from the long-term cooling resulting from increased greenhouse gases concentration.
Short summary
Long-term change in the ionosphere are expected due to increases in greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Empirical formulae are used to estimate height. Through comparison with independent data we show that there are seasonal and long-term biases introduced by the empirical model. We conclude that estimates of long-term changes in ionospheric height need to account for these biases.