Articles | Volume 39, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review paper
| 
10 Dec 2021
Review paper |
| 10 Dec 2021
| 10 Dec 2021
Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling
Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens,
15784 Athens, Greece
Hellenic Space Center, Athens, Greece
Loren C. Chang
Department of Space Science and Engineering, Center for Astronautical
Physics and Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320317, Taiwan
Sergio Dasso
Department of Physics, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires,
Argentina
Nat Gopalswamy
Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Olga V. Khabarova
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial
Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of RAS (IZMIRAN), Moscow,
108840, Russia
Emilia Kilpua
Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Ramon Lopez
Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX
76019, USA
Daniel Marsh
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds,
Leeds, UK
Katja Matthes
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Christian-Albrechts Universität, Kiel, Germany
Dibyendu Nandy
Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Indian Institute of
Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, India
Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science
Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, India
Annika Seppälä
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Kazuo Shiokawa
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University,
Nagoya, Japan
Rémi Thiéblemont
LATMOS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Qiugang Zong
School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
Related authors
Nour Dahmen, Antoine Brunet, Sebastien Bourdarie, Christos Katsavrias, Guillerme Bernoux, Stefanos Doulfis, Afroditi Nasi, Ingmar Sandberg, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Jesus Oliveros Fernandez, and Ioannis Daglis
Ann. Geophys., 41, 301–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-41-301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-41-301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth’s space environment is populated with charged particles. The energetic ones are trapped around Earth in radiation belts. Orbiting spacecraft that cross their region can accumulate charges on their internal surfaces, leading to hazardous electrostatic discharges. This paper showcases the SafeSpace safety prototype, which aims to warn satellite operators of probable incoming hazardous events by simulating the dynamics of the electron radiation belts from their origin at the Sun.
Christos Katsavrias, Afroditi Nasi, Ioannis A. Daglis, Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini, Nourallah Dahmen, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Marina Georgiou, Antoine Brunet, and Sebastien Bourdarie
Ann. Geophys., 40, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The radial diffusion mechanism is of utmost importance to both the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt and, consequently, for physics-based models, which provide nowcasting and forecasting of the electron population. In the framework of the "SafeSpace" project, we have created a database of calculated radial diffusion coefficients, and, furthermore, we have exploited it to provide insights for future modelling efforts.
Christos Katsavrias, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini, Ioannis A. Daglis, Ingmar Sandberg, and Piers Jiggens
Ann. Geophys., 39, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The nature of the semi-annual variation in the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt has been a debate for over 30 years. Our work shows that it is primarily driven by the Russell–McPherron effect, which indicates that reconnection is responsible not only for the short-scale but also the seasonal variability of the electron belt as well. Moreover, it is more pronounced during the descending phase of the solar cycles and coexists with periods of fast solar wind speed.
Constantinos Papadimitriou, Georgios Balasis, Ioannis A. Daglis, and Omiros Giannakis
Ann. Geophys., 36, 287–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-287-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Swarm is the fourth Earth Explorer mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), launched on 23 November 2013. The mission provides an opportunity for better knowledge of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment. This study presents an initial attempt to derive an ultra low-frequency (ULF) wave index from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The technique can be potentially used to define a new product from the mission, the Swarm ULF wave index, which would be suitable for space weather applications.
C. Tsironis, A. Anastasiadis, C. Katsavrias, and I. A. Daglis
Ann. Geophys., 34, 171–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-171-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-171-2016, 2016
M. Georgiou, I. A. Daglis, E. Zesta, G. Balasis, I. R. Mann, C. Katsavrias, and K. Tsinganos
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1431–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1431-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1431-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our study demonstrates a remarkable association between the earthward penetration of ULF waves and radiation belt electron enhancements during four magnetic storms that occurred in 2001. In the past, ULF waves had been observed at unusual depths during rare superstorms. But ULF wave activity, reaching magnetic shells as low as 2, was also observed during relatively intense storms when it played a key role in diffusing electrons radially inward and thereby accelerating them to higher energies.
N. Y. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin, I. A. Daglis, I. Dandouras, D. L. De Zeeuw, Y. Ebihara, R. Ilie, R. Katus, M. Kubyshkina, S. E. Milan, S. Ohtani, N. Ostgaard, J. P. Reistad, P. Tenfjord, F. Toffoletto, S. Zaharia, and O. Amariutei
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1369–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A number of current systems exist in the Earth's magnetosphere. It is very difficult to identify local measurements as belonging to a specific current system. Therefore, there are different definitions of supposedly the same current, leading to unnecessary controversy. This study presents a robust collection of these definitions of current systems in geospace, particularly in the near-Earth nightside magnetosphere, as viewed from a variety of observational and computational analysis techniques.
G. Balasis, I. A. Daglis, I. R. Mann, C. Papadimitriou, E. Zesta, M. Georgiou, R. Haagmans, and K. Tsinganos
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1237–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1237-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1237-2015, 2015
C. Katsavrias, I. A. Daglis, W. Li, S. Dimitrakoudis, M. Georgiou, D. L. Turner, and C. Papadimitriou
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1173–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1173-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1173-2015, 2015
T. M. Giannaros, D. Melas, I. A. Daglis, and I. Keramitsoglou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 347–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, 2014
Sanni Hoilijoki, Emilia Kilpua, Adnane Osmane, Lucile Turc, Mikko Savola, Veera Lipsanen, Harriet George, and Milla Kalliokoski
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-3, 2024
Preprint under review for ANGEO
Short summary
Short summary
Structures originating from the Sun, such as coronal mass ejections and high-speed streams, may impact the Earth's magnetosphere differently. The occurrence rate of these structures depends on the phase solar cycle. We use mutual information to study the change in the statistical dependence between solar wind and inner magnetosphere. We find that the non-linearity between solar wind and inner magnetosphere varies over the solar cycle and during different solar wind drivers.
Connor J. Clayton, Daniel R. Marsh, Steven T. Turnock, Ailish M. Graham, Kirsty J. Pringle, Carly L. Reddington, Rajesh Kumar, and James B. McQuaid
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-755, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could lead to vastly improved air quality in Europe, however, only minimal benefits are seen following the current trajectory of climate mitigation. We use a model that allows us to see where the improvements are greatest (Central Europe) and analyse what sectors are most important for achieving these co-benefits (agriculture/power).
Tabea Rahm, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Martje Hänsch, and Katja Matthes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime events that can impact surface weather. However, a distinct surface response is not observed for every SSW. Here, we classify SSWs that do and do not impact the troposphere in ERA5 reanalysis data. In addition, we evaluate the effects of two kinds of waves: planetary and synoptic-scale. Our findings emphasize that the lower stratosphere and synoptic-scale waves play crucial roles in coupling the SSW signal to the surface.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2424, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires however to include non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, so much that we cannot afford to include them in full in climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient and accurate parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the preindustrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Emilia Katja Johanna Kilpua, Simon Good, Matti Ala-Lahti, Adnane Osmane, and Venla Koikkalainen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2352, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The solar wind is organised to slow and fast streams, interaction regions and transient structures originating from solar eruptions. Their internal characteristics are not well understood. The more comprehensive understanding of such features can give insight on physical processes governing their formation and evolution. Using tools from information theory we find that the solar wind shows universal turbulent properties on smaller scales while on larger-scale clear differences arise.
John M. C. Plane, Jörg Gumbel, Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13255–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mesosphere or lower thermosphere region of the atmosphere borders the edge of space. It is subject to extreme ultraviolet photons and charged particles from the Sun and atmospheric gravity waves from below, which tend to break in this region. The pressure is very low, which facilitates chemistry involving species in excited states, and this is also the region where cosmic dust ablates and injects various metals. The result is a unique and exotic chemistry.
Nour Dahmen, Antoine Brunet, Sebastien Bourdarie, Christos Katsavrias, Guillerme Bernoux, Stefanos Doulfis, Afroditi Nasi, Ingmar Sandberg, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Jesus Oliveros Fernandez, and Ioannis Daglis
Ann. Geophys., 41, 301–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-41-301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-41-301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth’s space environment is populated with charged particles. The energetic ones are trapped around Earth in radiation belts. Orbiting spacecraft that cross their region can accumulate charges on their internal surfaces, leading to hazardous electrostatic discharges. This paper showcases the SafeSpace safety prototype, which aims to warn satellite operators of probable incoming hazardous events by simulating the dynamics of the electron radiation belts from their origin at the Sun.
Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas, Dong L. Wu, Jae N. Lee, Loren C. Chang, Liying Qian, and Hanli Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1705–1730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1705-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Upper mesospheric carbon monoxide's (CO) photochemical lifetime is longer than dynamical timescales. This work uses satellite observations and model simulations to establish that the migrating diurnal tide and its seasonal and interannual variabilities drive CO primarily through vertical advection. Vertical advection is a transport process that is currently difficult to observe. This work thus shows that we can use CO as a tracer for vertical advection across seasonal and interannual timescales.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Mingjiao Jia, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Daniel R. Marsh, Jonas Hedin, Jörg Gumbel, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11485–11504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study on the climatology of the metal sodium layer in the upper atmosphere from the ground-based measurements obtained from a lidar network, the Odin satellite measurements, and a global model of meteoric sodium in the atmosphere. Comprehensively, comparisons show good agreement and some discrepancies between ground-based observations, satellite measurements, and global model simulations.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Christos Katsavrias, Afroditi Nasi, Ioannis A. Daglis, Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini, Nourallah Dahmen, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Marina Georgiou, Antoine Brunet, and Sebastien Bourdarie
Ann. Geophys., 40, 379–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The radial diffusion mechanism is of utmost importance to both the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt and, consequently, for physics-based models, which provide nowcasting and forecasting of the electron population. In the framework of the "SafeSpace" project, we have created a database of calculated radial diffusion coefficients, and, furthermore, we have exploited it to provide insights for future modelling efforts.
Weijie Sun, James A. Slavin, Rumi Nakamura, Daniel Heyner, Karlheinz J. Trattner, Johannes Z. D. Mieth, Jiutong Zhao, Qiu-Gang Zong, Sae Aizawa, Nicolas Andre, and Yoshifumi Saito
Ann. Geophys., 40, 217–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-217-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-217-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents observations of FTE-type flux ropes on the dayside during BepiColombo's Earth flyby. FTE-type flux ropes are a well-known feature of magnetic reconnection on the magnetopause, and they can be used to constrain the location of reconnection X-lines. Our study suggests that the magnetopause X-line passed BepiColombo from the north as it traversed the magnetopause. Moreover, our results also strongly support coalescence creating larger flux ropes by combining smaller ones.
Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 40, 121–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Magnetospheric physics is in an extremely vibrant phase, with a number of ongoing and highly successful missions, e.g., Cluster, THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, and the MMS spacecraft, providing the most amazing observations and data sets. Since there are many fundamental and unsolved problems, in this paper I have addressed selected topics of ULF wave–charged particle interactions which encompass many special fields of radiation belt, ring current and plasmaspheric physics.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Adnane Osmane, Mikko Savola, Emilia Kilpua, Hannu Koskinen, Joseph E. Borovsky, and Milla Kalliokoski
Ann. Geophys., 40, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-37-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-37-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It has long been known that particles get accelerated close to the speed of light in the near-Earth space environment. Research in the last decades has also clarified what processes and waves are responsible for the acceleration of particles. However, it is difficult to quantify the scale of the impact of various processes competing with one another. In this study we present a methodology to quantify the impact waves can have on energetic particles.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Han-Li Liu, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15619–15630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the MLT region (80–120 km) from the ablation of cosmic dust. The latest lidar observations show these metals can reach a height approaching 200 km, which is challenging to explain. We have developed the first global simulation incorporating the full life cycle of metal atoms and ions. The model results compare well with lidar and satellite observations of the seasonal and diurnal variation of the metals and demonstrate the importance of ion mass and ion-neutral coupling.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Viktoria J. Nordström and Annika Seppälä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The winter winds over Antarctica form a stable vortex. However, in 2019 the vortex was disrupted and the temperature in the polar stratosphere rose by 50°C. This event, called a sudden stratospheric warming, is a rare event in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only known major event having taken place in 2002. The 2019 event helps us unravel its causes, which are largely unknown. We have discovered a unique behaviour of the equatorial winds in 2002 and 2019 that may signal an impending SH SSW.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
Andrei Runov, Maxime Grandin, Minna Palmroth, Markus Battarbee, Urs Ganse, Heli Hietala, Sanni Hoilijoki, Emilia Kilpua, Yann Pfau-Kempf, Sergio Toledo-Redondo, Lucile Turc, and Drew Turner
Ann. Geophys., 39, 599–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In collisionless systems like space plasma, particle velocity distributions contain fingerprints of ongoing physical processes. However, it is challenging to decode this information from observations. We used hybrid-Vlasov simulations to obtain ion velocity distribution functions at different locations and at different stages of the Earth's magnetosphere dynamics. The obtained distributions provide valuable examples that may be directly compared with observations by satellites in space.
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Anne Kleinert, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4111–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An improved dataset of vertical temperature profiles of the Earth's atmosphere in the altitude range 5–70 km is presented. These profiles are derived from measurements of the MIPAS instrument onboard ESA's Envisat satellite. The overall improvements are based on upgrades in the input data and several improvements in the data processing approach. Both of these are discussed, and an extensive error discussion is included. Enhancements of the new dataset are demonstrated by means of examples.
Christos Katsavrias, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini, Ioannis A. Daglis, Ingmar Sandberg, and Piers Jiggens
Ann. Geophys., 39, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The nature of the semi-annual variation in the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt has been a debate for over 30 years. Our work shows that it is primarily driven by the Russell–McPherron effect, which indicates that reconnection is responsible not only for the short-scale but also the seasonal variability of the electron belt as well. Moreover, it is more pronounced during the descending phase of the solar cycles and coexists with periods of fast solar wind speed.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Jianfei Wu, Xinan Yue, Wuhu Feng, Yutian Chi, Daniel R. Marsh, Hanli Liu, Xiankang Dou, and John M. C. Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4219–4230, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A long-standing mystery of metal ions within Es layers in the Earth's upper atmosphere is the marked seasonal dependence, with a summer maximum and a winter minimum. We report a large-scale winter-to-summer transport of metal ions from 6-year multi-satellite observations and worldwide ground-based stations. A global atmospheric circulation is responsible for the phenomenon. Our results emphasise the effect of this atmospheric circulation on the transport of composition in the upper atmosphere.
Emily M. Gordon, Annika Seppälä, Bernd Funke, Johanna Tamminen, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2819–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is the rain of solar energetic particles into the Earth's atmosphere. EPP is known to deplete O3 in the polar mesosphere–upper stratosphere via the formation of NOx. NOx also causes chlorine deactivation in the lower stratosphere and has, thus, been proposed to potentially result in reduced ozone depletion in the spring. We provide the first evidence to show that NOx formed by EPP is able to remove active chlorine, resulting in enhanced total ozone column.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Viswanathan Lakshmi Narayanan, Satonori Nozawa, Shin-Ichiro Oyama, Ingrid Mann, Kazuo Shiokawa, Yuichi Otsuka, Norihito Saito, Satoshi Wada, Takuya D. Kawahara, and Toru Takahashi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2343–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, additional sodium peaks occurring above the main sodium layer of the upper mesosphere were discussed. Here, formation of an additional sodium peak below the main sodium layer peak is discussed in detail. The event coincided with passage of multiple mesospheric bores, which are step-like disturbances occurring in the upper mesosphere. Hence, this work highlights the importance of such mesospheric bores in causing significant changes to the minor species concentration in a short time.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11569–11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packet (RWP) dynamics are crucial for weather forecasting, climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Our study is a first attempt to describe RWP behavior in the UTLS with global coverage directly from observations, using GNSS-RO data. Our novel results show an interesting relation of RWP vertical propagation with sudden stratospheric warmings and provide very useful information to improve RWP diagnostics in models and reanalysis.
Emilia K. J. Kilpua, Dominique Fontaine, Simon W. Good, Matti Ala-Lahti, Adnane Osmane, Erika Palmerio, Emiliya Yordanova, Clement Moissard, Lina Z. Hadid, and Miho Janvier
Ann. Geophys., 38, 999–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper studies magnetic field fluctuations in three turbulent sheath regions ahead of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind. Our results show that fluctuation properties vary significantly in different parts of the sheath when compared to solar wind ahead. Turbulence in sheaths resembles that of the slow solar wind in the terrestrial magnetosheath, e.g. regarding compressibility and intermittency, and it often lacks Kolmogorov's spectral indices.
Harriet George, Emilia Kilpua, Adnane Osmane, Timo Asikainen, Milla M. H. Kalliokoski, Craig J. Rodger, Stepan Dubyagin, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 38, 931–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-931-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compared trapped outer radiation belt electron fluxes to high-latitude precipitating electron fluxes during two interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with opposite magnetic cloud rotation. The electron response had many similarities and differences between the two events, indicating that different acceleration mechanisms acted. Van Allen Probe data were used for trapped electron flux measurements, and Polar Operational Environmental Satellites were used for precipitating flux data.
Julian Krüger, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Karl Bumke, and Katja Matthes
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the European heat wave occurrences of 2015 and 2018, this study evaluates the influence of cold North Atlantic SST anomalies on European heat waves by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. Our findings show that widespread cold North Atlantic SST anomalies may be a precursor for a persistent jet stream pattern and are thus important for the onset of high European temperatures.
Niilo Kalakoski, Pekka T. Verronen, Annika Seppälä, Monika E. Szeląg, Antti Kero, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8923–8938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on middle atmosphere chemistry were studied using the WACCM-D chemistry–climate model, including an improved representation of lower ionosphere ion chemistry. This study includes 66 events in the years 1989–2012 and uses a statistical approach to determine the impact of the improved chemistry scheme. The differences shown highlight the importance of ion chemistry in models used to study energetic particle precipitation.
Pekka T. Verronen, Daniel R. Marsh, Monika E. Szeląg, and Niilo Kalakoski
Ann. Geophys., 38, 833–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the first to study how the representation of the magnetic-local-time (MLT) dependency of electron precipitation impacts middle-atmospheric-ozone response on monthly timescales. We use a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model with detailed lower-ionospheric chemistry for an advanced representation of atmospheric impacts of electron forcing. We find that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations.
Xingran Chen, Qiugang Zong, Hong Zou, Xuzhi Zhou, Li Li, Yixin Hao, and Yongfu Wang
Ann. Geophys., 38, 801–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-801-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-801-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new in situ observation of energetic electrons in space obtained by a newly available particle detector. In view of the characteristic signatures in the particle flux, we attribute the observational features to the drift-resonance wave–particle interaction between energetic electrons and multiple localized ultra-low-frequency waves. The scenario is substantiated by a numerical calculation based on the revised drift-resonance theory which reproduced the observed particle signatures.
Markus Kunze, Tim Kruschke, Ulrike Langematz, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6991–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling the response of the atmosphere and its constituents to 11-year solar variations is subject to a certain uncertainty arising from the solar irradiance data set used in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) and the applied CCM itself.
This study reveals significant influences from both sources on the variations in the solar response in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
However, there are also regions where the random, unexplained part of the variations in the solar response is largest.
Milla M. H. Kalliokoski, Emilia K. J. Kilpua, Adnane Osmane, Drew L. Turner, Allison N. Jaynes, Lucile Turc, Harriet George, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 38, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-683-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-683-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive statistical study of the response of the Earth's space environment in sheath regions prior to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. The inner magnetospheric wave activity is enhanced in sheath regions, and the sheaths cause significant changes to the outer radiation belt electron fluxes over short timescales. We also show that non-geoeffective sheaths can result in a significant response.
Haiyan Li, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6541–6561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The QBO westerly phase was reversed by an unexpected easterly jet near 40 hPa and the westerly zonal wind lasted an unusually long time at 20 hPa during winter 2015/16. We find that quasi-stationary Rossby wave W1 and faster Rossby wave W2 propagating from the northern extratropics and a locally generated Rossby wave W3 were important contributors to the easterly jet at 40 hPa. Our results suggest that the unusual zonal wind structure at 20 hPa could be caused by enhanced Kelvin wave activity.
Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
Emily M. Gordon, Annika Seppälä, and Johanna Tamminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6259–6271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6259-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6259-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Sun constantly emits high-energy charged particles that produce the ozone destroying chemical NOx in the polar atmosphere. NOx is transported to the stratosphere, where the ozone layer is. Satellite observations show that the NOx gases remain in the atmosphere longer than previously reported. This is influenced by the strength of atmospheric large-scale dynamics, suggesting that there are specific times when this type of solar influence on the Antarctic atmosphere becomes more pronounced.
Emilia Kilpua, Liisa Juusola, Maxime Grandin, Antti Kero, Stepan Dubyagin, Noora Partamies, Adnane Osmane, Harriet George, Milla Kalliokoski, Tero Raita, Timo Asikainen, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 38, 557–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-557-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coronal mass ejection sheaths and ejecta are key drivers of significant space weather storms, and they cause dramatic changes in radiation belt electron fluxes. Differences in precipitation of high-energy electrons from the belts to the upper atmosphere are thus expected. We investigate here differences in sheath- and ejecta-induced precipitation using the Finnish riometer (relative ionospheric opacity meter) chain.
Antti Lakka, Tuija I. Pulkkinen, Andrew P. Dimmock, Emilia Kilpua, Matti Ala-Lahti, Ilja Honkonen, Minna Palmroth, and Osku Raukunen
Ann. Geophys., 37, 561–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-561-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We study how the Earth's space environment responds to two different amplitude interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events that occurred in 2012 and 2014 by using the GUMICS-4 global MHD model. We examine local and large-scale dynamics of the Earth's space environment and compare simulation results to in situ data. It is shown that during moderate driving simulation agrees well with the measurements; however, GMHD results should be interpreted cautiously during strong driving.
Tao Yuan, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3769–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Na layer in the upper atmosphere is very sensitive to solar radiation and varies considerably during sunrise and sunset. In this paper, we use the lidar observations and an advanced model to investigate this process. We found that the variation is mostly due to the changes in several photochemical reactions involving Na compounds, especially NaHCO3. We also reveal that the Fe layer in the same region changes more quickly than the Na layer due to a faster reaction rate of FeOH to sunlight.
Sabine Haase and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole influences surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Recent studies have shown that stratospheric ozone depletion in the Arctic can also affect the surface. We evaluate the importance of the direct and indirect representation of ozone variability in a climate model for this surface response. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry, radiation, and dynamics enhances and prolongs the surface response to Northern Hemisphere spring ozone depletion.
David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, Michael Kosch, Annika Seppälä, and Pekka T. Verronen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simulation study has been carried out to investigate the potential for observing ozone and hydroxyl radical abundances in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using ground-based passive microwave radiometry. In the polar middle atmosphere these chemical species respond strongly to geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. The results show that measuring diurnal variations in ozone and hydroxyl from high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic locations would be possible.
David E. Siskind, McArthur Jones Jr., Douglas P. Drob, John P. McCormack, Mark E. Hervig, Daniel R. Marsh, Martin G. Mlynczak, Scott M. Bailey, Astrid Maute, and Nicholas J. Mitchell
Ann. Geophys., 37, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from two NASA satellites and a general circulation model of the upper atmosphere to elucidate the key factors governing the abundance and diurnal variation of nitric oxide (NO) at near-solar minimum conditions and low latitudes. This has been difficult to do previously, because NO data are typically taken from satellites in sun-synchronous orbits, meaning that they only acquire data in fixed local times. We overcome this limitation through model simulations of the NO diurnal cycle.
Septi Perwitasari, Takuji Nakamura, Masaru Kogure, Yoshihiro Tomikawa, Mitsumu K. Ejiri, and Kazuo Shiokawa
Ann. Geophys., 36, 1597–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1597-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1597-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a user-friendly program that can efficiently deal with extensive amounts of airglow data. We have applied this new program to airglow data obtained at different latitudes in polar, midlatitude, and equatorial regions and demonstrated distinct differences in atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) propagation characteristics and energy distribution. We aim to encourage other AGW research groups to use the program and do comparisons to reveal AGW characteristics on a more global scale.
Shuai Zhang, Anmin Tian, Quanqi Shi, Hanlin Li, Alexander W. Degeling, I. Jonathan Rae, Colin Forsyth, Mengmeng Wang, Xiaochen Shen, Weijie Sun, Shichen Bai, Ruilong Guo, Huizi Wang, Andrew Fazakerley, Suiyan Fu, and Zuyin Pu
Ann. Geophys., 36, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1335-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The features of ULF waves are statistically studied on the magnetotail stretched magnetic field lines (8 RE < R < 32 RE) by using 8 years of THEMIS data. The occurrence rates of ULF waves are higher in the post-midnight region than pre-midnight region. The frequency decreases with increasing radial distance of 8–16 RE and could be explained by much more standing waves in this region than in the region of 16–32 RE. The wave frequency is higher after the substorm onset than before it.
Liisa Juusola, Sanni Hoilijoki, Yann Pfau-Kempf, Urs Ganse, Riku Jarvinen, Markus Battarbee, Emilia Kilpua, Lucile Turc, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 36, 1183–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field, forming a magnetosphere. On the night side solar wind stretches the magnetosphere into a long tail. A process called magnetic reconnection opens the magnetic field lines and reconnects them, accelerating particles to high energies. We study this in the magnetotail using a numerical simulation model of the Earth’s magnetosphere. We study the motion of the points where field lines reconnect and the fast flows driven by this process.
Tao Li, Chao Ban, Xin Fang, Jing Li, Zhaopeng Wu, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Jiangang Xiong, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael J. Mills, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11683–11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 154 nights of observations by the USTC Na temperature and wind lidar (32° N, 117° E) suggest significant seasonal variability in the mesopause. Chemistry plays an important role in Na atom formation. More than half of the observed gravity wave (GW) momentum flux (MF), whose divergence determines the GW forcing, is induced by short-period (10 min–2 h) waves. The anticorrelation between MF and zonal wind (U) suggests strong filtering of short-period GWs by semiannual oscillation U.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Xochitl Blanco-Cano, Markus Battarbee, Lucile Turc, Andrew P. Dimmock, Emilia K. J. Kilpua, Sanni Hoilijoki, Urs Ganse, David G. Sibeck, Paul A. Cassak, Robert C. Fear, Riku Jarvinen, Liisa Juusola, Yann Pfau-Kempf, Rami Vainio, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 36, 1081–1097, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1081-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use the Vlasiator code to study the characteristics of transient structures that exist in the Earth's foreshock, i.e. upstream of the bow shock. The structures are cavitons and spontaneous hot flow anomalies (SHFAs). These transients can interact with the bow shock. We study the changes the shock suffers via this interaction. We also investigate ion distributions associated with the cavitons and SHFAs. A very important result is that the arrival of multiple SHFAs results in shock erosion.
Koen Hendrickx, Linda Megner, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christine Smith-Johnsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9075–9089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanisms that produce, destroy and transport nitric oxide (NO) in the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere are investigated in AIM-SOFIE satellite observations and compared to SD-WACCM simulations. During winter, NO concentrations are most similar while the altitude of maximum NO number densities is most separated. Even though the rate of descent is similar in both datasets, the simulated descending NO flux is too low in concentration, which reflects a missing source of NO.
Matti M. Ala-Lahti, Emilia K. J. Kilpua, Andrew P. Dimmock, Adnane Osmane, Tuija Pulkkinen, and Jan Souček
Ann. Geophys., 36, 793–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-793-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of mirror mode waves and the properties of their plasma surroundings in sheath regions driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) to deepen our understanding of these geo-effective plasma environments. The results imply that mirror modes are common structures in ICME sheaths and occur almost exclusively as dip-like structures and in mirror stable stable plasma.
Vered Silverman, Nili Harnik, Katja Matthes, Sandro W. Lubis, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6637–6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a quantified and mechanistic understanding of the radiative effects of ozone waves on the NH stratosphere. In particular, we find these effects to influence the seasonal evolution of the midlatitude QBO signal (Holton–Tan effect), which is important for getting realistic dynamical interactions in climate models. We also provide a synoptic view on the evolution of the seasonal development of the Holton–Tan effect by looking at the life cycle of upward-propagating waves.
Erkki Kyrölä, Monika E. Andersson, Pekka T. Verronen, Marko Laine, Simo Tukiainen, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5001–5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we compare three key constituents of the middle atmosphere (ozone, NO2, and NO3) from the GOMOS satellite instrument with the WACCM model. We find that in the stratosphere (below 50 km) ozone differences are very small, but in the mesosphere large deviations are found. GOMOS and WACCM NO2 agree reasonably well except in the polar areas. These differences can be connected to the solar particle storms. For NO3, WACCM results agree with GOMOS with a very high correlation.
Constantinos Papadimitriou, Georgios Balasis, Ioannis A. Daglis, and Omiros Giannakis
Ann. Geophys., 36, 287–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-287-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Swarm is the fourth Earth Explorer mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), launched on 23 November 2013. The mission provides an opportunity for better knowledge of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment. This study presents an initial attempt to derive an ultra low-frequency (ULF) wave index from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The technique can be potentially used to define a new product from the mission, the Swarm ULF wave index, which would be suitable for space weather applications.
Heqiucen Xu, Kazuo Shiokawa, and Dennis Frühauff
Ann. Geophys., 35, 1131–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-1131-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-1131-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we statistically analyzed severe magnetic fluctuations in the nightside near-Earth plasma sheet. For the first time, we showed the occurrence rates of these fluctuations. The superposed epoch analysis also indicated that the flow speed increases before the severe magnetic fluctuations. We also discussed how both the inside-out and outside-in substorm models can be used to explain these observed results.
Martin P. Langowski, Christian von Savigny, John P. Burrows, Didier Fussen, Erin C. M. Dawkins, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2989–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteoric metals form metal layers in the upper atmosphere anandplay a role in the formation of middle-atmospheric clouds and aerosols. However, the total metal influx rate is not well known. Global Na datasets from measurements and a model are available, which had not been compared yet on a global scale until this paper. Overall the agreement is good, and many differences between measurements are also found in the model simulations. However, the modeled layer altitude is too low.
Katja Matthes, Bernd Funke, Monika E. Andersson, Luke Barnard, Jürg Beer, Paul Charbonneau, Mark A. Clilverd, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Margit Haberreiter, Aaron Hendry, Charles H. Jackman, Matthieu Kretzschmar, Tim Kruschke, Markus Kunze, Ulrike Langematz, Daniel R. Marsh, Amanda C. Maycock, Stergios Misios, Craig J. Rodger, Adam A. Scaife, Annika Seppälä, Ming Shangguan, Miriam Sinnhuber, Kleareti Tourpali, Ilya Usoskin, Max van de Kamp, Pekka T. Verronen, and Stefan Versick
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4093–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, 2017
Christina Chu, Hui Zhang, David Sibeck, Antonius Otto, QiuGang Zong, Nick Omidi, James P. McFadden, Dennis Fruehauff, and Vassilis Angelopoulos
Ann. Geophys., 35, 443–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-443-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Hot flow anomalies (HFAs) at Earth's bow shock were identified in Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) satellite data from 2007 to 2009. The events were classified as young or mature and regular or spontaneous hot flow anomalies (SHFAs). HFA–SHFA occurrence decreases with distance upstream from the bow shock. HFAs are more prevalent for radial interplanetary magnetic fields and solar wind speeds from 550 to 600 kms−1.
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Sandro W. Lubis, Vered Silverman, Katja Matthes, Nili Harnik, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2437–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Downward wave coupling (DWC) events impact high-latitude stratospheric ozone in two ways: (1) reduced dynamical transport of ozone from low to high latitudes during individual events and (2) enhanced springtime chemical destruction of ozone via the cumulative impact of DWC events on polar stratospheric temperatures. The results presented here broaden the scope of the impact of wave–mean flow interaction on stratospheric ozone by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Anna Totterdill, John M. C. Plane, Sandip Dhomse, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Gabriele P. Stiller, Florian J. Haenel, Christopher Smith, Piers M. Forster, Rolando R. García, Daniel R. Marsh, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a very potent greenhouse gas, which is present in the atmosphere only through its industrial use, for example as an electrical insulator. To estimate accurately the impact of SF6 emissions on climate we need to know how long it persists in the atmosphere before being removed. Previous estimates of the SF6 lifetime indicate a large degree of uncertainty. Here we use a detailed atmospheric model to calculate a current best estimate of the SF6 lifetime.
Kunihiko Kodera, Rémi Thiéblemont, Seiji Yukimoto, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12925–12944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial structure of the solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface is analysed to identify the mechanisms. Both tropical and extratropical solar surface signals can result from circulation changes in the upper stratosphere through (i) a downward migration of wave zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. Amplification of the solar signal also occurs through interaction with the ocean.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11617–11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed overview of the daily variability of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the tropics, where TIL research had focused little. The vertical and horizontal structures of this atmospheric layer are described and linked to near-tropopause horizontal wind divergence, the QBO and especially to equatorial waves. Our results increase the knowledge about the observed properties of the tropical TIL, mainly using satellite GPS radio-occultation measurements.
Tamás Kovács, John M. C. Plane, Wuhu Feng, Tibor Nagy, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Pekka T. Verronen, Monika E. Andersson, David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3123–3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study was completed on D-region atmospheric model development. The sophisticated 3-D Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the 1-D Sodynkalä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) were combined in order to provide a detailed, accurate model (WACCM-SIC) that considers the processes taking place in solar proton events. The original SIC model was reduced by mechanism reduction, which provided an accurate sub-mechanism (rSIC, WACCM-rSIC) of the original model.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Lon Hood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of changes in incoming solar radiation on stratospheric ozone has important impacts on the atmosphere. Understanding this ozone response is crucial for constraining how solar activity affects climate. This study analyses the solar ozone response (SOR) in satellite datasets and shows that there are substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial structure across different records. In particular, the SOR in the new SAGE v7.0 mixing ratio data is smaller than in the previous v6.2.
Ming Shangguan, Katja Matthes, Wuke Wang, and Tae-Kwon Wee
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
A first validation of the COSMIC Radio Occultation (RO) water vapor data in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are presented in this paper. The COSMIC water vapor shows a good agreement with the Microwave limb Sounder (MLS) in both the spatial distribution and the seasonal to interannual variations. It is very valuable for studying the water vapor in the UTLS, thanks to its global coverage, all- weather aptitude and high vertical resolution.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Charles H. Jackman, Daniel R. Marsh, Douglas E. Kinnison, Christopher J. Mertens, and Eric L. Fleming
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5853–5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Two global models were used to investigate the impact of galactic cosmic ray (GCRs) on the atmosphere over the 1960-2010 time period. The primary impact of the naturally occurring GCRs on ozone was found to be due to their production of NOx and this impact varies with the atmospheric chlorine loading, sulfate aerosol loading, and solar cycle variation. GCR-caused decreases of annual average global total ozone were computed to be 0.2 % or less.
Erika Palmerio, Emilia K. J. Kilpua, and Neel P. Savani
Ann. Geophys., 34, 313–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-313-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are giant clouds of plasma and magnetic field that erupt from the Sun and travel though the solar wind. They can cause interplanetary shocks in the vicinity of Earth. We show in our paper that the region that follows CME-driven shocks, known as sheath region, can obtain a planar configuration of the magnetic field lines (planar magnetic structure, PMS) due to the compression resulting from the shock itself or from the draping of the magnetic field ahead of the CME.
C. Tsironis, A. Anastasiadis, C. Katsavrias, and I. A. Daglis
Ann. Geophys., 34, 171–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-171-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-171-2016, 2016
M. Georgiou, I. A. Daglis, E. Zesta, G. Balasis, I. R. Mann, C. Katsavrias, and K. Tsinganos
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1431–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1431-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1431-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our study demonstrates a remarkable association between the earthward penetration of ULF waves and radiation belt electron enhancements during four magnetic storms that occurred in 2001. In the past, ULF waves had been observed at unusual depths during rare superstorms. But ULF wave activity, reaching magnetic shells as low as 2, was also observed during relatively intense storms when it played a key role in diffusing electrons radially inward and thereby accelerating them to higher energies.
N. Y. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin, I. A. Daglis, I. Dandouras, D. L. De Zeeuw, Y. Ebihara, R. Ilie, R. Katus, M. Kubyshkina, S. E. Milan, S. Ohtani, N. Ostgaard, J. P. Reistad, P. Tenfjord, F. Toffoletto, S. Zaharia, and O. Amariutei
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1369–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A number of current systems exist in the Earth's magnetosphere. It is very difficult to identify local measurements as belonging to a specific current system. Therefore, there are different definitions of supposedly the same current, leading to unnecessary controversy. This study presents a robust collection of these definitions of current systems in geospace, particularly in the near-Earth nightside magnetosphere, as viewed from a variety of observational and computational analysis techniques.
G. Balasis, I. A. Daglis, I. R. Mann, C. Papadimitriou, E. Zesta, M. Georgiou, R. Haagmans, and K. Tsinganos
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1237–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1237-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1237-2015, 2015
C. Katsavrias, I. A. Daglis, W. Li, S. Dimitrakoudis, M. Georgiou, D. L. Turner, and C. Papadimitriou
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1173–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1173-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1173-2015, 2015
M. Myllys, E. Kilpua, and T. Pulkkinen
Ann. Geophys., 33, 845–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-845-2015, 2015
W. Wang, K. Matthes, and T. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5815–5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, 2015
V. Zharkova and O. Khabarova
Ann. Geophys., 33, 457–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-457-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present further observations of the solar-wind particles being accelerated to rather higher energies while passing through the HCS or a current sheet formed at the front of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection. This additional acceleration can explain the anticorrelation of ion and electron fluxes frequently observed around the ICME’s leading front. This acceleration can also provide a plausible explanation of the appearance of bidirectional strahls.
I. I. Vogiatzis, A. Isavnin, Q.-G. Zong, E. T. Sarris, S. W. Lu, and A. M. Tian
Ann. Geophys., 33, 63–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-63-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Magnetospheric substorms are one of the most important phenomena occurring in planetary magnetotails, dynamically reconfiguring the near- planet space environment. They encompass various fundamental processes of plasma acceleration and transport in the magnetosphere/ionosphere. The key features of the paper are a new magnetospheric substorm model, a new explanation about the origin of dipolarization fronts (DFs), and a new explanation for energetic ion acceleration/injection in front of DFs.
M. P. Langowski, C. von Savigny, J. P. Burrows, W. Feng, J. M. C. Plane, D. R. Marsh, D. Janches, M. Sinnhuber, A. C. Aikin, and P. Liebing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 273–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Global concentration fields of Mg and Mg+ in the Earth's upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70-150km) are presented. These are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat satellite grating spectrometer measurements in limb viewing geometry between 2008 and 2012.
These were compared with WACCM-Mg model results and a large fraction of the available measurement results for these species, and an interpretation of the results is done. The variation of these species during NLC presence is discussed.
K. Andréeová, L. Juusola, E. K. J. Kilpua, and H. E. J. Koskinen
Ann. Geophys., 32, 1293–1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-1293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-1293-2014, 2014
L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, and E. K. J. Kilpua
Ann. Geophys., 32, 1247–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-1247-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-1247-2014, 2014
G. Chiodo, D. R. Marsh, R. Garcia-Herrera, N. Calvo, and J. A. García
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5251–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, 2014
A. C. Kren, D. R. Marsh, A. K. Smith, and P. Pilewskie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4843–4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, 2014
J. A. Wanliss, K. Shiokawa, and K. Yumoto
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-347-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-347-2014, 2014
T. M. Giannaros, D. Melas, I. A. Daglis, and I. Keramitsoglou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 347–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-347-2014, 2014
L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, and E. K. J. Kilpua
Ann. Geophys., 32, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-157-2014, 2014
E. K. J. Kilpua, H. Hietala, H. E. J. Koskinen, D. Fontaine, and L. Turc
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1559–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1559-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1559-2013, 2013
R. Kataoka, Y. Miyoshi, K. Shigematsu, D. Hampton, Y. Mori, T. Kubo, A. Yamashita, M. Tanaka, T. Takahei, T. Nakai, H. Miyahara, and K. Shiokawa
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1543–1548, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1543-2013, 2013
E. K. J. Kilpua, A. Isavnin, A. Vourlidas, H. E. J. Koskinen, and L. Rodriguez
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1251–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1251-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1251-2013, 2013
L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, H. Hietala, and E. K. J. Kilpua
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1011–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1011-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1011-2013, 2013
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
K. Andreeova, E. K. J. Kilpua, H. Hietala, H. E. J. Koskinen, A. Isavnin, and R. Vainio
Ann. Geophys., 31, 555–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-555-2013, 2013
Y. Otsuka, K. Suzuki, S. Nakagawa, M. Nishioka, K. Shiokawa, and T. Tsugawa
Ann. Geophys., 31, 163–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-163-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-163-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Magnetosphere & space plasma physics | Keywords: Space weather effects
Evaluation of possible corrosion enhancement due to telluric currents: case study of the Bolivia–Brazil pipeline
Joyrles Fernandes de Moraes, Igo Paulino, Lívia R. Alves, and Clezio Marcos Denardini
Ann. Geophys., 38, 881–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-881-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-881-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of space weather events in technological systems were studied in the tropical region of Brazil by investigating the Bolivia–Brazil pipeline during space weather events with different intensities. The results presented significant corrosion levels during the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm and showed that the effects of space weather must be accounted for, even in low latitudes, since the lifetime of the pipelines can be reduced.
Cited articles
Adhikari, L., Khabarova, O., Zank, G. P., and Zhao, L.-L.: The Role of
Magnetic Reconnection–associated Processes in Local Particle Acceleration
in the Solar Wind, Astrophys. J., 873, 72, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab05c6, 2019.
Ala-Lahti, M. M., Kilpua, E. K. J., Dimmock, A. P., Osmane, A., Pulkkinen, T., and Souček, J.: Statistical analysis of mirror mode waves in sheath regions driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejection, Ann. Geophys., 36, 793–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-793-2018, 2018.
Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Marsh, D. R., Seppälä, A.,
Päivärinta, S.-M., Rodger, C.-J., Clilverd, M.-A., Kalakoski, N.,
and van de Kamp, M.: Polar Ozone Response to Energetic Particle Precipitation
Over Decadal Time Scales: The Role of Medium-Energy Electrons, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 123, 607–622, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027605, 2018.
Baker, D. N., Li, X., Pulkkinen, A., Ngwira, C. M., Mays, M. L., Galvin, A. B.,
and Simunac, K. D. C.: A major solar eruptive event in July 2012: Defining
extreme space weather scenarios, Space Weather, 11, 585–591,
https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20097, 2013.
Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Brasseur, G., Burrows, J., Butchart, N., Garcia, R., Geller, M., Gray, L., Hamilton, K., Harnik, N., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U., Robock, A., Sato, K., and Scaife, A. A.: 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the
Stratosphere and Mesosphere, Meteorological Monographs, 59, 27.1–27.62, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-19-0003.1, 2018.
Battarbee M., Dalla, S., and Marsh, M. S.: Modeling Solar Energetic Particle
Transport near a Wavy Heliospheric Current Sheet, Astrophys. J., 854, 23,
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aaa3fa, 2018.
Bhowmik, P. and Nandy, D.: Prediction of the Strength and Timing of Sunspot
Cycle 25 Reveal Decadal-scale Space Environmental Conditions, Nat.
Commun., 9, 5209, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0, 2018.
Bisi, M. M., Jackson, B. V., Breen, A. R., Dorrian, G. D., Fallows, R. A.,
Clover, J. M., and Hick, P. P.: Three-Dimensional (3-D) Reconstructions of
EISCAT IPS Velocity Data in the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 23, Sol.
Phys., 265, 233–244, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9594-4, 2010.
Bothmer, V. and Daglis, I. A.: Space Weather – Physics and Effects,
Springer, Berlin, 2007.
Burlaga, L. F., Plunkett, S. P., and St. Cyr, O. C.: Successive CMEs and complex
ejecta, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 107, SSH 1-1–SSH 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JA000255, 2002.
Cane, H. V., Stone, R. G., Fainberg, J., Steinberg, J. L., and Hoang, S.:
Type-II Solar Radio Events Observed in the Interplanetary Medium – Part One
– General Characteristics, Sol. Phys., 78, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00151153,
1982.
Cécere, M., Sieyra, M. V. , Cremades, H., Mierla, M., Sahade, A., Stenborg, G., Costa, A., West, M. J., and D'Huys, E.: Large non-radial propagation of a coronal mass
ejection on 2011 January 24, Adv. Space Res., 65, 1654–1662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2019.08.043, 2020.
Chang, L. C., Palo, S. E., and Liu, H.-L.: Short-term variability in the
migrating diurnal tide caused by interactions with the quasi 2 day wave, J.
Geophys. Res.-Space, 116, D12112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014996, 2011.
Chang, L. C., Yue, J., Wang, W., Wu, Q., and Meier, R. R.: Quasi two day
wave-related variability in the background dynamics and composition of the
mesosphere/thermosphere, and the ionosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119,
4786–4804, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA019936, 2014.
Chi, Y., Shen, C., Luo, B., Wang, Y., and Xu, M.: Geoeffectiveness of stream
interaction regions from 1995 to 2018, Space Weather, 16, 1960–1971,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001894, 2018.
Daglis, I. A.: Ring Current Dynamics, Space Sci. Rev., 124, 183–202,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-006-9104-z, 2006.
Daglis, I. A. and Kamide, Y.: The role of substorms in storm-time particle
acceleration, in: Disturbances in Geospace: The Storm-Substorm Relationship,
edited by: Kamide, Y. and Gurbax, S., American Geophysical Union,
Washington, DC, 119–129, https://doi.org/10.1029/142GM11, 2003.
Daglis, I. A., Kozyra, J. U., Kamide, Y., Vassiliadis, D., Sharma, A. S.,
Liemohn, M. W., Gonzalez, W. D., Tsurutani, B. T., and Lu, G.: Intense space
storms: Critical issues and open disputes, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 108,
1208, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JA009722, 2003.
Daglis, I. A., Katsavrias, C., and Georgiou, M.: From solar sneezing to
killer electrons: outer radiation belt response to solar eruptions, Phil.
Trans. R. Soc. A, 377, 20180097, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0097, 2019.
Dasso, S., Mandrini, C. H., Demoulin, P., and Luoni, M. L.: A new
model-independent method to compute magnetic helicity in magnetic clouds,
Astron. Astrophys., 455, 349–359, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20064806,
2006.
Eastwood, J. P., Hapgood, M. A., Biffis, E., Benedetti, D., Bisi, M. M.,
Green, L., Bentley, R. D., and Burnett, C., Quantifying the economic value
of space weather forecasting for power grids: An exploratory study, Space
Weather, 16, 2052–2067, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002003, 2018.
England, S. L.: A Review of the Effects of Non-migrating Atmospheric Tides
on the Earth's Low-Latitude Ionosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 168, 211–236, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-011-9842-4, 2012.
Forbes, J. M. and Zhang, X.: Lunar tide amplification during the January
2009 stratosphere warming event: Observations and theory, J. Geophys. Res.,
117, A12312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JA017963, 2012.
Frissell, N. A., Miller, E. S., Kaeppler, S. R., Ceglia, F., Pascoe, D.,
Sinanis, N., Smith, P., Williams, R., and Shovkoplyas, A.: Ionospheric
Sounding Using Real-Time Amateur Radio Reporting Networks, Space Weather,
12, 651–656, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001132, 2014.
Garrett, H. and Whittlesey, A. C.: Guide to Mitigating Spacecraft Charging
Effects, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, available at: https://descanso.jpl.nasa.gov/SciTechBook/st_series3_chapter.html (last access: 4 December 2021), 2011.
Gasperini, F., Forbes, J. M., Doornbos, E. N., and Bruinsma, S. L.: Wave
coupling between the lower and middle thermo- sphere as viewed from TIMED
and GOCE, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 120, 5788–5804, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021300, 2015.
Goncharenko, L. P., Chau, J. L., Liu, H.-L., and Coster, A. J.: Unexpected
connections between the stratosphere and ionosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
37, L10101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043125, 2010.
Good, S. W., Kilpua, E. K. J., LaMoury, A. T., Forsyth, R. J., Eastwood, J. P., and Möstl, C.: Self-Similarity of ICME Flux Ropes: Observations by Radially
Aligned Spacecraft in the Inner Heliosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 4960–4982, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026475, 2019.
Gopalswamy, N.: Solar connections of geoeffective magnetic structures, J.
Atmos. Terr. Phys., 70, 2078, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.06.010, 2008.
Gopalswamy, N.: Extreme Solar Eruptions and their Space Weather
Consequences, in: “Extreme Events in Geospace”, edited by: Buzulukova, N., 37–63, Elsevier Inc., Amsterdam, Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812700-1.00002-9, 2018.
Gopalswamy, N., Lara, A., Lepping, R. P., et al.: Interplanetary acceleration
of coronal mass ejections, J. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 145–148,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL003639, 2000.
Gopalswamy, N., Xie, H., Yashiro, S., Akiyama, S., Mäkelä, P., and
Usoskin, I. G.: Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the
Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23, Space Sci. Rev., 171, 23–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-012-9890-4, 2012.
Gopalswamy, N., Mäkelä, P., Akiyama, S., Yashiro, S., Xie, H.,
Thakur, N., and Kahler, S. W.: Large Solar Energetic Particle Events
Associated with Filament Eruptions Outside of Active Regions, Astrophys. J., 806, 8, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/806/1/8,
2015.
Gopalswamy, N., Akiyama, S., Yashiro, S., and Xie, H.: Coronal flux ropes
and their interplanetary counterparts, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 180, 35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.06.004, 2018a.
Gopalswamy, N., Akiyama, S, Yashiro, S, and Xie, H.: A New Technique to Provide
Realistic Input to CME Forecasting Models, IAUS, 335, 258–262, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743921317011048, 2018b.
Gopalswamy, N., Akiyama, S., Yashiro, S.: The State of the Heliosphere
Revealed by Limb-halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycles 23 and 24,
Astrophys. J., 897, L1, https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ab9b7b, 2020.
Green, L., Török, T., Vrsnak, B., Manchester, W., and Veronig A.:
The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions, Space
Sci. Rev., 46, 214, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-017-0462-5, 2018.
Guo, J., Feng, X., Emery, B. A., Zhang, J., Xiang, C., Shen, F., and Song,
W.: Energy transfer during intense geomagnetic storms driven by
interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions, J. Geophys.
Res., 116, A05106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA016490, 2011.
Hayakawa, H., Ebihara, Y., Cliver, E. W., Hattori, K., Toriumi, S., Love,
J.J., Umemura, N., Namekata, K., Sakaue, T., Takahashi, T., and Shibata, K.:
The extreme space weather event in September 1909, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 484, 4083–4099,
https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/sty3196, 2019.
He, C., Yang, Y., Carter, B., Zhang, K., Hu, A., Li, W., Deleflie, F., Norman, R., and Wu, S: Impact of
thermospheric mass density on the orbit prediction of LEO satellites, Space
Weather, 18, e2019SW002336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002336, 2020.
Hilgers, A., Glover, A., and Daly, E.: Effects on spacecraft hardware and
operations, in: Space Weather – Physics and Effects, edited by: Bothmer,
V. and Daglis, I. A., Springer, Berlin, Germany, 353–381, 2007.
Huttunen, K. E. J. and Koskinen, H. E. J.: Importance of post-shock streams and sheath region as drivers of intense magnetospheric storms and high-latitude activity, Ann. Geophys., 22, 1729–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1729-2004, 2004.
Jackson, B. V., Hick, P. P., Buffington, A., Bisi, M. M., and Clover, J. M.: SMEI direct, 3-D-reconstruction sky maps, and volumetric analyses, and their comparison with SOHO and STEREO observations, Ann. Geophys., 27, 4097–4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-4097-2009, 2009.
Ji, E.-Y., Moon, Y.-J., Gopalswamy, N., and Lee, D.-H.: Comparison of Dst
forecast models for intense geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 117,
A03209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA016872, 2012.
Jian, L. K., Russell, C. T., Luhmann, J. G., MacNeice, P. J., Odstrcil, D., Riley, P., Linker, J. A., Skoug, R. M., and Steinberg, J. T.: Comparison of Observations
at ACE and Ulysses with Enlil Model Results: Stream Interaction Regions
During Carrington Rotations 2016–2018, Sol. Phys., 273, 179–203, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9858-7, 2011.
Kelly, M. A., Comberiate, J. M., Miller, E. S., and Paxton, L. J.: Progress
toward forecasting of space weather effects on UHF SATCOM after Operation
Anaconda, Space Weather, 12, 601–611, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001081, 2014.
Khabarova O. V. and Zank G. P.: Energetic Particles of keV–MeV Energies
Observed near Reconnecting Current Sheets at 1 AU, Astrophys. J., 843, 4,
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aa7686, 2017.
Khabarova O., Zank, G.P., Li, G., le Roux, J.A., Webb, G. M., Dosch, A., and
Malandraki, O. E.: Small-scale magnetic islands in the solar wind and their
role in particle acceleration. 1. Dynamics of magnetic islands near the
heliospheric current sheet, Astrophys. J., 808, 181, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/808/2/181, 2015.
Khabarova O. V., Zank, G. P., Li, G., Malandraki, O. E., le Roux, J. A., and
Webb, G. M.: Small-scale magnetic islands in the solar wind and their role in
particle acceleration. II. Particle energization inside magnetically
confined cavities, Astrophys. J., 827, 122, https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/827/2/122, 2016.
Khabarova O., Zharkova V., Xia Q., and Malandraki, O.: Counterstreaming
strahls and heat flux dropouts as possible signatures of local particle
acceleration in the solar wind, Astrophys. J. Lett., 894, L12, https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ab8cb8, 2020.
Khabarova, O., Malandraki, O., Malova, H., Kislov, R., Greco, A., Bruno, R.,
Pezzi, O., Servidio, S., Li, G., Matthaeus, W., Le Roux, J., Engelbrecht, N.
E., Pecora, F., Zelenyi, L., Obridko, V., and Kuznetsov, V.: Current Sheets,
Plasmoids and Flux Ropes in the Heliosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 217, 38, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-021-00814-x, 2021.
Kilpua, E. K. J., Lumme, E., Andreeova, K., Isavnin, A., and Koskinen, H. E. J.:
Properties and drivers of fast interplanetary shocks near the orbit of the
Earth (1995–2013), J. Geophys. Res., 120, 4112–4125, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021138, 2015a.
Kilpua, E. K. J, Olspert, N., Grigorievskiy, A., Käpylä, M. J.,
Tanskanen, E. I., Miyahara, H., Kataoka, R., Pelt, J., and Liu, Y. D.:
Statistical study of strong and extreme geomagnetic disturbances and solar
cycle characteristics, Astrophys. J., 806, 272, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/806/2/272, 2015b
Kilpua, E. K. J., Koskinen, H., and Pulkkinen, T.: Coronal mass ejections and
their sheath regions in interplanetary space, Living Rev. Sol. Phys., 14, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-017-0009-6, 2017.
Kilpua, E. K. J., Lugaz, N., Mays, L., and Temmer, M.: Forecasting the Structure
and Orientation of Earthbound Coronal Mass Ejections, Space Weather, 17,
498–526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001944, 2019.
Knipp, D. J., Fraser, B. J., Shea, M. A., and Smart, D. F.: On the
little-known consequences of the 4 August 1972 ultra-fast coronal mass
ejecta: Facts, commentary, and call to action, Space Weather, 16,
1635–1643, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002024, 2018.
Kontogiannis, I., Georgoulis, M. K., Park, S.-H., and Guerra, J. A.: Testing
and improving a set of morphological predictors of flaring activity, 293, 96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1317-2, 2018.
Kostas, F., Kontogiannis, I., Park, S.-H., Guerra, J. A., Benvenuto, F.,
Bloomfield, D. S., and Georgoulis, M. K.: Forecasting solar flares using
magnetogram-based predictors and machine learning, Sol. Phys., 293, 28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1250-4, 2018.
Kusano, K., Iju, T., Bamba, Y., and Inoue, S.: A physics-based method that
can predict imminent large solar flares, Science, 31, 587–591, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz2511, 2020.
Lamy, P. L., Floyd, O., Boclet, B., Wojak, J., Gilardy, H., and Barlyeva, T.:
Coronal Mass Ejections over Solar Cycles 23 and 24, Space Sci. Rev., 215,
39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-019-0605-y, 2019.
Lei, J., Thayer, J. P., Forbes, J. M., Sutton, E. K., Nerem, R. S., Temmer,
M., and Veronig, A. M.: Global thermospheric density variations caused by
high-speed solar wind streams during the declining phase of solar cycle 23,
J. Geophys. Res., 113, A11303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA013433, 2008.
Lei, J., Thayer, J. P., Wang, W., Luan, X., Dou, X., and Roble, R.:
Simulations of the equatorial thermosphere anomaly: Physical mechanisms for
crest formation, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A06318, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JA017613, 2012.
Leonard, J. M., Forbes, J. M., and Born, G. H.: Impact of tidal density
variability on orbital and reentry predictions, Space Weather, 10, S12003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012SW000842, 2012.
Le Roux J. A., Webb G. M., Khabarova O. V., Zhao L.-L., and Adhikari L.:
Modeling Energetic Particle Acceleration and Transport in a Solar Wind
Region with Contracting and Reconnecting Small-scale Flux Ropes at Earth
Orbit, Astrophys. J., 887, 77, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab521f, 2019.
Lin, J. T., Lin, C. H., Chang, L. C., Huang, H. H., Liu, J. Y., Chen, A. B.,
Chen, C. H., and Liu, C. H.: Observational evidence of ionospheric migrating
tide modification during the 2009 stratospheric sudden warming, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 39, L02101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050248, 2012.
Lin, C. C. H., Shen, M.-H., Chou, M.-Y., Chen, C.-H., Yue, J., Chen, P.-C.,
and Matsumura M.: Concentric traveling ionospheric disturbances triggered by
the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7578–7586,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074192, 2017.
Liu, H.-L. and Richmond, A. D.: Attribution of ionospheric vertical plasma
drift perturbations to large-scale waves and the dependence on solar
activity, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 2452–2465, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50265,
2013.
Liu, H., Zong, Q.-G., Zhou, X.-Z., Fu, S. Y., Rankin, R., Wang, L.-H., Yuan,
C. J., Wang, Y. F., Baker, D. N., Blake, J. B., and Kletzing, C. A.:
Compressional ULF wave modulation of energetic particles in the inner
magnetosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 121, 6262–6276, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022706, 2016.
Liu, H., Thayer, J., Zhang, Y., and Lee, W. K.: The non-storm time
corrugated upper thermosphere: What is beyond MSIS?, Space Weather, 15,
746–760, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001618, 2017.
Lugaz, N., Temmer, M., Wang Y., and Farrugia, C. J.: The interaction of
successive Coronal Mass Ejections: A review, Sol. Phys., 292, 64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1091-6, 2017.
Lugaz, N., Farrugia, C. J., Winslow, R. M., Al-Haddad, N., Galvin, A. B.,
Nieves-Chinchilla, T., Lee, C. O., and Janvier, M.: On the Spatial Coherence
of Magnetic Ejecta: Measurements of Coronal Mass Ejections by Multiple
Spacecraft Longitudinally Separated by 0.01 AU, Astrophys. J. Lett., 864,
L7, https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aad9f4, 2018.
Luhmann, J. G., Gopalswamy, N., Jian, L. K., and Lugaz, N.: ICME evolution
in the inner heliosphere, Sol. Phys., 295, 61, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-01624-0, 2020.
Magdalenić, J., Marqué, C., Krupar, V., Mierla, M., Zhukov, A. N.,
Rodriguez, L., Maksimović, M., and Cecconi, B.: Tracking the CME-driven
Shock Wave on 2012 March 5 and Radio Triangulation of Associated Radio
Emission, Astrophys. J., 791, 115, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/791/2/115, 2015.
Manchester, W., Kilpua, E. K. J., Liu, Y. D., Lugaz, N., Riley, P.,
Török, T., and Vršnak, B.: The Physical Processes of CME/ICME
Evolution, Space Sci. Rev., 212, 1159–1219, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-017-0394-0,
2017.
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017.
Mewaldt, R. A., Looper, M. D., Cohen, C. M. S., Haggerty, D. K., Labrador,
A. W., Leske, R. A., Mason, G. M., Mazur, J. E., and von Rosenvinge, T. T.:
Energy Spectra, Composition, and Other Properties of Ground-Level Events
During Solar Cycle 23, Space Sci. Rev., 171, 97–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-012-9884-2,
2012.
Möstl, C., Isavnin, A., Boakes, P. D., Kilpua, E. K. J., Davies, J. A.,
Harrison, R. A., Barnes, D., Krupar, V., Eastwood, J. P., Good, S. W., Forsyth,
R. J., Bothmer, V., Reiss, M. A., Amerstorfer, T., Winslow, R. M., Anderson,
B. J., Philpott, L. C., Rodriguez, L., Rouillard, A. P., Gallagher, P.,
Nieves-Chinchilla, T., and Zhang, T. L.: Modeling observations of solar coronal
mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics
System Observatory, Space Weather, 7, 955–970, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614,
2017.
Nandy, D.: Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24–25 in
Perspective, Sol. Phys., 296, 54, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01797-2, 2021.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine: Next Generation
Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts,
Washington, DC, The National Academies Press,
https://doi.org/10.17226/21873, 2016.
Nitta, N. V. and Mulligan, T.: Earth-Affecting Coronal Mass Ejections
Without Obvious Low Coronal Signatures, Sol. Phys., 292, 125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1147-7, 2018.
Núñez, M., Nieves-Chinchilla, T., and Pulkkinen, A.: Prediction of
shock arrival times from CME and flare data, Space Weather, 14, 544–562,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001361, 2016.
Oberheide, J., Shiokawa, K., Gurubaran, S., Ward, W. E, Fujiwara, H., Kosch,
M. J, Makela, J. J., and Takahashi, H.: The geospace response to variable
inputs from the lower atmosphere: a review of the progress made by Task
Group 4 of CAWSES-II, Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 2, 2, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0031-4, 2015.
Odstrcil, D.: Modeling 3-D solar wind structure, Adv. Space Res., 32,
497–506, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(03)00332-6, 2003.
Odstrcil, D. and Pizzo, V. J.: Three-dimensional propagation of CMEs in a
structured solar wind flow: 1. CME launched within the streamer belt, J.
Geophys. Res., 104, 483–492, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JA900019, 1999.
Owens, M. J., Lockwood, M., and Barnard, L. A.: Coronal mass ejections are not
coherent magnetohydrodynamic structures, Sci. Rep., 7, 4152, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04546-3, 2017.
Park, S.-R., Jeon, H.-C., Kim, R.-S., Kim, J.-H., Kim, S.-J., Cho, J., and
Jang, S.: Development of Forecast Algorithm for Coronal Mass Ejection Speed
and Arrival Time Based on Propagation Tracking by Interplanetary
Scintillation g-Value, Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences, 37, 43–50,
https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2020.37.1.43, 2020.
Patsourakos, S. and Georgoulis, M. K.: A Helicity-Based Method to Infer the
CME Magnetic Field Magnitude in Sun and Geospace: Generalization and
Extension to Sun-Like and M-Dwarf Stars and Implications for Exoplanet
Habitability, Sol. Phys., 292, 89, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1124-1, 2017.
Pedatella, N. M., Richmond, A. D., Maute, A., and Liu, H.-L.: Impact of
semidiurnal tidal variability during SSWs on the mean state of the
ionosphere and thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 121, 8077–8088,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022910, 2016.
Pirjola, R.: Space weather effects on power grids, in: Space Weather –
Physics and Effects, edited by: Bothmer, V. and Daglis, I. A., Springer,
Berlin, Germany, 269–288, 2007.
Pomoell, J. and Poedts, S.: EUHFORIA: European heliospheric forecasting
information asset, J. Space Weather Spac., 8, A35, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018020, 2018.
Posner, A., Bothmer, V., Thompson, B. J., Kunow, H., Heber, B., Müller-Mellin, R., Lazarus, A., Szabo, A., Mikić, Z., and Linker, J. A.: In-ecliptic CIR-associated
energetic particle events and polar coronal hole structures: SOHO/COSTEP
observations for the Whole Sun Month Campaign, J. Geophys. Res., 104,
9881–9890, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JA02654, 1999.
Qian, L. and Solomon, S. C.: Thermospheric Density: An Overview of Temporal
and Spatial Variations, Space Sci. Rev., 168, 147–173, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-011-9810-z, 2012.
Reames, D.: Solar Energetic Particles: A Modern Primer on Understanding
Sources, Acceleration, and Propagation, Lect. Notes. Phys., 932, 1–127, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50871-9, 2017.
Reeves, G. D. and Daglis, I. A.: Geospace magnetic storms and the Van Allen
radiation belts, in: Waves, Particles, and Storms in Geospace, edited by:
Balasis, G., Daglis, I. A., and Mann, I. R., Oxford University Press,
Oxford, UK, 51–79, 2016.
Richardson, J. D.: Shocks and sheaths in the heliosphere, J. Atmos. Terr.
Phys., 73, 1385–1389, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2010.06.005, 2011.
Richardson, I. G.: Solar wind stream interaction regions throughout the
heliosphere, Living Rev. Sol. Phys., 15, 1, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-017-0011-z, 2018.
Rotter, T., Veronig, A. M., Temmer, M., and Vršnak, B.: Relation Between Coronal Hole
Areas on the Sun and the Solar Wind Parameters at 1 AU, Sol. Phys., 281,
793–813, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-0101-y, 2012.
Runge, J., Balasis, G., Daglis, I. A., Papadimitriou, C., and Donner, R. V.:
Common solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm
dependency, Sci. Rep., 8, 16987, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35250-5,
2018.
Sanchez-Diaz, E., Rouillard, A., Davies, J. A., Lavraud, B., Pinto, R.,
and Kilpua, E.: The Temporal and Spatial Scales of Density Structures Released
in the Slow Solar Wind During Solar Activity Maximum, Astrophys. J. Lett.,
851, 32, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aa98e2, 2017.
Sarkar, R., Gopalswamy, N., and Srivastava, N.: An Observationally
Constrained Analytical Model for Predicting the Magnetic Field Vectors of
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections at 1 AU, Astrophys. J., 888, 121, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab5fd7, 2020.
Sarno-Smith, L. K., Larsen, B. A., Skoug, R. M., Liemohn, M. W., Breneman, A.,
Wygant, J. R., and Thomsen, M. F.: Spacecraft surface charging within
geosynchronous orbit observed by the Van Allen Probes, Space Weather, 14,
151–164, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001345, 2016.
Scolini, C., Chane, E., Temmer, M., Kilpua, E. K. J. Dissauer, K., Veronig,
A. M., Palmerio, E., Pomoell, J. Dumbovic, M., Guo, J., Rodriguez, L., and
Poedts, S.: CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geoeffectiveness: The
Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in 2017 Early
September, Astrophys. J. Supp. Series, 247, 21, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ab6216,
2020.
Seppälä, A., Lu, H., Clilverd, M. A., and Rodger, C. J.: Geomagnetic
activity signatures in wintertime stratosphere wind, temperature, and wave
response, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2169–2183,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50236, 2013.
Seppälä, A., Matthes, K., Randall, C. E., and Mironova, I. A.: What
is the solar influence on climate? Overview of activities during CAWSES-II,
Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 1, 24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0024-3, 2014.
Shi, Q. Q., Hartinger, M. D., Angelopoulos, V., Tian, A. M., Fu, S. Y.,
Zong, Q.-G., Weygand, J. M., Raeder, J., Pu, Z. Y., Zhou, X. Z., Dunlop, M.
W., Liu, W. L., Zhang, H., Yao, Z. H., and Shen, X. C.: Solar wind pressure
pulse-driven magnetospheric vortices and their global consequences, J.
Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 4274–4280, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019551, 2014.
Shiota, D. and Kataoka, R.: Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of
interplanetary propagation of multiple coronal mass ejections with internal
magnetic flux rope (SUSANOO-CME), Space Weather, 14, 56–75, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001308, 2016.
Siscoe, G. and Odstrcil, D.: Ways in which ICME sheaths differ from
magnetosheaths, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A00B07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA013142,
2008.
Smith, Z. K., Steenburgh, R., Fry, C. D., and Dryer M.: Predictions of
interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth: Dependence of forecast outcome on
the input parameters, Space Weather, 7, S12005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009SW000500,
2009.
Takahashi T. and Shibata K.: Sheath-accumulating Propagation of
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection, Astrophys. J., 837, L17, https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa624c, 2017.
Tsunoda, R. T., Nguyen, T. T., and Le, M. H.: Effects of tidal forcing,
conductivity gradient, and active seeding on the climatology of equatorial
spread F over Kwajalein, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 120, 632–653,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020762, 2015.
Vandegriff, J., Wagstaff, K., Ho, G., and Plauger, J.: Forecasting space
weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks, Adv. Space
Res., 36, 2323–2327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2004.09.022,
2005.
Vršnak, B., Žic, T., Vrbanec, D., Temmer, M., Rollett, T.,
Möstl, C., Veronig, A., Čalogović, J., Dumbović, M.,
Lulić, S., Moon, Y.-J., and Shanmugaraju, A.: Propagation of
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model, Sol. Phys.,
285, 295–315, 2013.
Wang, Y., Wang, B., Shen, C., Shen, F., and Lugaz, N.: Deflected propagation
of a coronal mass ejection from the corona to inter-planetary space, J.
Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 5117–5132, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019537, 2014.
Welsch, B. T.: Flux Accretion and Coronal Mass Ejection Dynamics, Sol.
Phys., 293, 113, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1329-y, 2018.
Yamazaki, Y. and Richmond, A. D.: A theory of ionospheric response to
upward-propagating tides: Electrodynamic effects and tidal mixing effects,
J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 5891–5905, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50487, 2013.
Yamazaki, Y., Häusler, K., and Wild, J. A.: Day-to-day
variability of midlatitude ionospheric currents due to magnetospheric and
lower atmospheric forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 121, 7067–7086, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022817, 2016.
Yiğit, E., Medvedev, A. S., England, S. L., and Immel, T. J.: Simulated
variability of the high-latitude thermosphere induced by small-scale gravity
waves during a sudden stratospheric warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 357–365, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019283, 2014.
Yue, C., Le Roux, J. A., Li, G., Webb, G. M., Khabarova, O., Cummings, A., Stone, E., and Decker, R.: Geomagnetic activities triggered by interplanetary shocks,
J. Geophys. Res., 115, A00I05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015356, 2010.
Yue, C. and Zong, Q.: Solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices for
four different interplanetary shock/ICME structures, J. Geophys. Res., 116,
A12201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA017013, 2011.
Yue, J. and Wang, W.: Changes of thermospheric composition and ionospheric
density caused by quasi 2 day wave dissipation, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 2069–2078, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019725, 2014.
Yue, J., Russell III, J., Jian, Y., Rezac, L., Garcia, R.,
López-Puertas, M., and Mlynczak, M. G.: Increasing carbon dioxide
concentration in the upper atmosphere observed by SABER, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 42, 7194–7199, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064696, 2015.
Zank, G. P., Rice, W. K. M., and Wu, C. C.: Particle acceleration and
coronal mass ejection driven shocks: A theoretical model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Space, 105, 25079, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JA000455, 2000.
Zank, G. P., Hunana, P., Mostafavi, P., Le Roux, J. A., Li, G., Webb, G. M., Khabarova, O., Cummings, A., Stone, E., and Decker, R.: Diffusive shock acceleration and
reconnection acceleration processes, Astrophys. J., 814, 137,
https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/814/2/137, 2015.
Zharkova, V. and Khabarova, O.: Particle Acceleration in the Reconnecting
Heliospheric Current Sheet: Solar Wind Data Versus 3D PIC Simulations,
Astrophys. J., 752, 35, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/752/1/35, 2012.
Zharkova, V. and Khabarova, O.: Additional acceleration of solar-wind particles in current sheets of the heliosphere, Ann. Geophys., 33, 457–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-457-2015, 2015.
Zong, Q.-G., Zhou, X.-Z., Wang, Y. F., Li, X., Song, P., Baker, D. N., Fritz, T. A., Daly, P. W., Dunlop, M., and Pedersen, A.: Energetic electrons response to ULF waves induced by
interplanetary shocks in the outer radiation belt, J. Geophys. Res., 114,
A10204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014393, 2009.
Zucca, P., Morosan, D. E., Rouillard, A. P., Fallows, R., Gallagher, P. T., Magdalenic, J., Klein, K. -L., Mann, G., Vocks, C., Carley, E. P., Bisi, M. M., Kontar, E. P., Rothkaehl, H., Dabrowski, B., Krankowski, A., Anderson, J., Asgekar, A., Bell, M. E., Bentum, M. J., Best, P. Blaauw, R., Breitling, F., Broderick, J. W., Brouw, W. N., Brüggen, M., Butcher, H. R., Ciardi, B., de Geus, E., Deller, A., Duscha, S., Eislöffel, J., Garrett, M. A., Grießmeier, J. M., Gunst, A. W., Heald, G., Hoeft, M., Hörandel, J., Iacobelli, M., Juette, E., Karastergiou, A., van Leeuwen, J., McKay-Bukowski, D., Mulder, H., Munk, H., Nelles, A., Orru, E., Paas, H., Pandey, V. N., Pekal, R., Pizzo, R., Polatidis, A. G., Reich, W., Rowlinson, A., Schwarz, D. J., Shulevski, A., Sluman, J., Smirnov, O., Sobey, C., Soida, M., Thoudam, S., Toribio, M. C., Vermeulen, R., van Weeren, R. J., Wucknitz, O., and Zarka, P.: Shock location and CME
3D reconstruction of a solar type II radio burst with LOFAR, Astron. Astrophys., 615, id.A89, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201732308, 2018.
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable...
