Articles | Volume 39, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review paper
| 
10 Dec 2021
Review paper |
| 10 Dec 2021
| 10 Dec 2021
Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling
Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens,
15784 Athens, Greece
Hellenic Space Center, Athens, Greece
Loren C. Chang
Department of Space Science and Engineering, Center for Astronautical
Physics and Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320317, Taiwan
Sergio Dasso
Department of Physics, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires,
Argentina
Nat Gopalswamy
Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Olga V. Khabarova
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial
Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of RAS (IZMIRAN), Moscow,
108840, Russia
Emilia Kilpua
Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Ramon Lopez
Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX
76019, USA
Daniel Marsh
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds,
Leeds, UK
Katja Matthes
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Christian-Albrechts Universität, Kiel, Germany
Dibyendu Nandy
Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Indian Institute of
Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, India
Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science
Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, India
Annika Seppälä
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Kazuo Shiokawa
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University,
Nagoya, Japan
Rémi Thiéblemont
LATMOS, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Qiugang Zong
School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Qiugang Zong
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Adnane Osmane, Mikko Savola, Emilia Kilpua, Hannu Koskinen, Joseph E. Borovsky, and Milla Kalliokoski
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Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Han-Li Liu, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15619–15630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, 2021
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Metal layers occur in the MLT region (80–120 km) from the ablation of cosmic dust. The latest lidar observations show these metals can reach a height approaching 200 km, which is challenging to explain. We have developed the first global simulation incorporating the full life cycle of metal atoms and ions. The model results compare well with lidar and satellite observations of the seasonal and diurnal variation of the metals and demonstrate the importance of ion mass and ion-neutral coupling.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
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Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Viktoria J. Nordström and Annika Seppälä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, 2021
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The winter winds over Antarctica form a stable vortex. However, in 2019 the vortex was disrupted and the temperature in the polar stratosphere rose by 50°C. This event, called a sudden stratospheric warming, is a rare event in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only known major event having taken place in 2002. The 2019 event helps us unravel its causes, which are largely unknown. We have discovered a unique behaviour of the equatorial winds in 2002 and 2019 that may signal an impending SH SSW.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2257-2021, 2021
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Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
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We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
Andrei Runov, Maxime Grandin, Minna Palmroth, Markus Battarbee, Urs Ganse, Heli Hietala, Sanni Hoilijoki, Emilia Kilpua, Yann Pfau-Kempf, Sergio Toledo-Redondo, Lucile Turc, and Drew Turner
Ann. Geophys., 39, 599–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-599-2021, 2021
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In collisionless systems like space plasma, particle velocity distributions contain fingerprints of ongoing physical processes. However, it is challenging to decode this information from observations. We used hybrid-Vlasov simulations to obtain ion velocity distribution functions at different locations and at different stages of the Earth's magnetosphere dynamics. The obtained distributions provide valuable examples that may be directly compared with observations by satellites in space.
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Anne Kleinert, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4111–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, 2021
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An improved dataset of vertical temperature profiles of the Earth's atmosphere in the altitude range 5–70 km is presented. These profiles are derived from measurements of the MIPAS instrument onboard ESA's Envisat satellite. The overall improvements are based on upgrades in the input data and several improvements in the data processing approach. Both of these are discussed, and an extensive error discussion is included. Enhancements of the new dataset are demonstrated by means of examples.
Christos Katsavrias, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Sigiava Aminalragia-Giamini, Ioannis A. Daglis, Ingmar Sandberg, and Piers Jiggens
Ann. Geophys., 39, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-413-2021, 2021
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The nature of the semi-annual variation in the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt has been a debate for over 30 years. Our work shows that it is primarily driven by the Russell–McPherron effect, which indicates that reconnection is responsible not only for the short-scale but also the seasonal variability of the electron belt as well. Moreover, it is more pronounced during the descending phase of the solar cycles and coexists with periods of fast solar wind speed.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Jianfei Wu, Xinan Yue, Wuhu Feng, Yutian Chi, Daniel R. Marsh, Hanli Liu, Xiankang Dou, and John M. C. Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4219–4230, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, 2021
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A long-standing mystery of metal ions within Es layers in the Earth's upper atmosphere is the marked seasonal dependence, with a summer maximum and a winter minimum. We report a large-scale winter-to-summer transport of metal ions from 6-year multi-satellite observations and worldwide ground-based stations. A global atmospheric circulation is responsible for the phenomenon. Our results emphasise the effect of this atmospheric circulation on the transport of composition in the upper atmosphere.
Emily M. Gordon, Annika Seppälä, Bernd Funke, Johanna Tamminen, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2819–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, 2021
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Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is the rain of solar energetic particles into the Earth's atmosphere. EPP is known to deplete O3 in the polar mesosphere–upper stratosphere via the formation of NOx. NOx also causes chlorine deactivation in the lower stratosphere and has, thus, been proposed to potentially result in reduced ozone depletion in the spring. We provide the first evidence to show that NOx formed by EPP is able to remove active chlorine, resulting in enhanced total ozone column.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
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Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Viswanathan Lakshmi Narayanan, Satonori Nozawa, Shin-Ichiro Oyama, Ingrid Mann, Kazuo Shiokawa, Yuichi Otsuka, Norihito Saito, Satoshi Wada, Takuya D. Kawahara, and Toru Takahashi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2343–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2343-2021, 2021
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In the past, additional sodium peaks occurring above the main sodium layer of the upper mesosphere were discussed. Here, formation of an additional sodium peak below the main sodium layer peak is discussed in detail. The event coincided with passage of multiple mesospheric bores, which are step-like disturbances occurring in the upper mesosphere. Hence, this work highlights the importance of such mesospheric bores in causing significant changes to the minor species concentration in a short time.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
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The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
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Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11569–11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, 2020
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Rossby wave packet (RWP) dynamics are crucial for weather forecasting, climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Our study is a first attempt to describe RWP behavior in the UTLS with global coverage directly from observations, using GNSS-RO data. Our novel results show an interesting relation of RWP vertical propagation with sudden stratospheric warmings and provide very useful information to improve RWP diagnostics in models and reanalysis.
Emilia K. J. Kilpua, Dominique Fontaine, Simon W. Good, Matti Ala-Lahti, Adnane Osmane, Erika Palmerio, Emiliya Yordanova, Clement Moissard, Lina Z. Hadid, and Miho Janvier
Ann. Geophys., 38, 999–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-999-2020, 2020
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This paper studies magnetic field fluctuations in three turbulent sheath regions ahead of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind. Our results show that fluctuation properties vary significantly in different parts of the sheath when compared to solar wind ahead. Turbulence in sheaths resembles that of the slow solar wind in the terrestrial magnetosheath, e.g. regarding compressibility and intermittency, and it often lacks Kolmogorov's spectral indices.
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Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable...
