Articles | Volume 35, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-691-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-691-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Errors in wind resource and energy yield assessments based on the Weibull distribution
Bénédicte Jourdier
LMD/IPSL, École polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne
Universités,
UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Palaiseau, France
French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), Angers, France
Now at: EDF R&D – MFFE, Applied Meteorology Group, Chatou, France
Philippe Drobinski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LMD/IPSL, École polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne
Universités,
UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Palaiseau, France
Related authors
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Bénédicte Jourdier
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-63-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-63-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind speeds at turbine hub heights are scarcely measured and often replaced by numerical datasets when simulating wind power time series for various impact studies. Can we trust these modelled wind speeds? This work investigates five wind-speed datasets, comparing them to actual wind-speed and wind-power observations in France. They show various skills in terms of bias and hourly variability, leading to more or less realistic wind-power simulations at the local scale.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Théo Le Guenedal, Philippe Drobinski, and Peter Tankov
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8001–8039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CATHERINA model produces simulations of cyclone-related annualized damage costs at a country level from climate data and open-source socioeconomic indicators. The framework couples statistical and physical modeling of tropical cyclones to bridge the gap between general circulation and integrated assessment models providing a precise description of tropical-cyclone-related damages.
Yonatan Givon, Douglas Keller Jr., Vered Silverman, Romain Pennel, Philippe Drobinski, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mistral wind is a renowned phenomenon in the Mediterranean, yet its large-scale controlling mechanisms have not been systematically mapped. Here, using a new mistral database for 1981–2016, the upper-tropospheric flow patterns are classified by a self-organizing map algorithm, resulting in 16 distinct patterns related to Rossby wave life cycles. Each pattern has unique surface impact, having implications to understanding mistral predictability, air–sea interaction and their future projections.
Bénédicte Jourdier
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-63-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-63-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind speeds at turbine hub heights are scarcely measured and often replaced by numerical datasets when simulating wind power time series for various impact studies. Can we trust these modelled wind speeds? This work investigates five wind-speed datasets, comparing them to actual wind-speed and wind-power observations in France. They show various skills in terms of bias and hourly variability, leading to more or less realistic wind-power simulations at the local scale.
Aurore Dupré, Philippe Drobinski, Jordi Badosa, Christian Briard, and Riwal Plougonven
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-88, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In a context of climate change, the wind energy sector has seen a very sharp growth requiring accurate forecasts. Air density is a key variable in the wind energy modeling as it can make the power output varies by almost 20 %. In this paper, a numerically low-cost method is evaluated. This method improves the wind energy modeling by more than 15 % and by almost 40 % when the atmospheric conditions are far from the standards atmospheric conditions used to produce the wind turbine power curve.
Sophie Bastin, Philippe Drobinski, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Olivier Bock, Romain Roehrig, Clemente Gallardo, Dario Conte, Marta Domínguez Alonso, Laurent Li, Piero Lionello, and Ana C. Parracho
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1471–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses colocated observations of temperature, precipitation and humidity to investigate the triggering of precipitation. It shows that there is a critical value of humidity above which precipitation picks up. This critical value depends on T and varies spatially. It also analyses how this dependency is reproduced in regional climate simulations over Europe. Models with too little and too light precipitation have both lower critical value of humidity and higher probability to exceed it.
Nicolas Da Silva, Sylvain Mailler, and Philippe Drobinski
Ann. Geophys., 36, 321–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics because they absorb radiations (direct effects) and because they act as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effects). The present study shows that aerosol indirect effects reduce summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region through reduction of the radiative heating of the surface and corresponding reductions of surface temperature, resulting in increased atmospheric stability in the presence of high aerosol loads.
C. Hernandez, C. Keribin, P. Drobinski, and S. Turquety
Ann. Geophys., 33, 1495–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1495-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1495-2015, 2015
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, and S. Turquety
Ann. Geophys., 33, 931–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, 2015
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, S. Turquety, and J.-L. Dupuy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1331–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, 2015
Short summary
Wind resource assessments often rely on models of wind-speed statistics using a Weibull distribution. This study shows how its use impacts the prediction of the wind energy content and the power output. Three methods for fitting the Weibull distribution are tested (maximum likelihood, moments and WAsP). The first two methods overestimate the production up to 5 %. The WAsP method always produces errors lower than 2 %. A Rayleigh–Rice distribution is also tested and shows even better skill.
Wind resource assessments often rely on models of wind-speed statistics using a Weibull...