Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Ann. Geophys., 33, 405–411, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015

Special issue: Observation, analysis and modelling of solar and heliospheric...

Ann. Geophys., 33, 405–411, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015

Regular paper 27 Mar 2015

Regular paper | 27 Mar 2015

Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

R. J. Boynton et al.

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Data-based models have been derived to forecast the >0.8MeV and >2MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day-ahead forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both >0.8MeV and >2MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high.