Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Ann. Geophys., 33, 405–411, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015

Special issue: Observation, analysis and modelling of solar and heliospheric...

Ann. Geophys., 33, 405–411, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015

Regular paper 27 Mar 2015

Regular paper | 27 Mar 2015

Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, and S. A. Billings R. J. Boynton et al.
  • Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK

Abstract. Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input–output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB3GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html.

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Short summary
Data-based models have been derived to forecast the >0.8MeV and >2MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day-ahead forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both >0.8MeV and >2MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high.