Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO

Abstract. Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input–output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB³GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html.