Articles | Volume 34, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
Rosa Claudia Torcasio
CNR-ISAC, Zona Industriale Comparto 15, 88046 Lamezia Terme, Italy
CNR-ISAC, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
Claudia Roberta Calidonna
CNR-ISAC, Zona Industriale Comparto 15, 88046 Lamezia Terme, Italy
Elenio Avolio
CNR-ISAC, Zona Industriale Comparto 15, 88046 Lamezia Terme, Italy
Oxana Drofa
CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, Bologna, Italy
Tony Christian Landi
CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, Bologna, Italy
Piero Malguzzi
CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, Bologna, Italy
Andrea Buzzi
CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, Bologna, Italy
Paolo Bonasoni
CNR-ISAC, Via Gobetti 101, Bologna, Italy
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This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
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In this paper we evaluate the performance of two estimates of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), one derived from the Meteosat Second Generation and one from a meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The focus area is Italy, and the performance is evaluated for 12 pyranometers spanning a range of climate conditions, from Mediterranean maritime to Alpine.
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Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2167–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2167-2023, 2023
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Publication in GMD not foreseen
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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We implemented a prototype of a centralized system to support atmospheric observatories in data production and submission. By using the “R” Language, for several near-surface ECVs, we developed specific routines for data filtering, flagging, formatting, and creation of data products for detecting instrumental problems or special atmospheric events. Our effort would improve atmospheric data quality, accelerate the process of data submission and make the data flagging more “objective".
Marco Pandolfi, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Andrés Alastuey, Marcos Andrade, Christo Angelov, Begoña Artiñano, John Backman, Urs Baltensperger, Paolo Bonasoni, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Martine Collaud Coen, Sébastien Conil, Esther Coz, Vincent Crenn, Vadimas Dudoitis, Marina Ealo, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Olivier Favez, Prodromos Fetfatzis, Markus Fiebig, Harald Flentje, Patrick Ginot, Martin Gysel, Bas Henzing, Andras Hoffer, Adela Holubova Smejkalova, Ivo Kalapov, Nikos Kalivitis, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Adam Kristensson, Markku Kulmala, Heikki Lihavainen, Chris Lunder, Krista Luoma, Hassan Lyamani, Angela Marinoni, Nikos Mihalopoulos, Marcel Moerman, José Nicolas, Colin O'Dowd, Tuukka Petäjä, Jean-Eudes Petit, Jean Marc Pichon, Nina Prokopciuk, Jean-Philippe Putaud, Sergio Rodríguez, Jean Sciare, Karine Sellegri, Erik Swietlicki, Gloria Titos, Thomas Tuch, Peter Tunved, Vidmantas Ulevicius, Aditya Vaishya, Milan Vana, Aki Virkkula, Stergios Vratolis, Ernest Weingartner, Alfred Wiedensohler, and Paolo Laj
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This investigation presents the variability in near-surface in situ aerosol particle light-scattering measurements obtained over the past decade at 28 measuring atmospheric observatories which are part of the ACTRIS Research Infrastructure, and most of them belong to the GAW network. This paper provides a comprehensive picture of the spatial and temporal variability of aerosol particles optical properties in Europe.
Monica Campanelli, Alessandra Mascitelli, Paolo Sanò, Henri Diémoz, Victor Estellés, Stefano Federico, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Francesca Fratarcangeli, Augusto Mazzoni, Eugenio Realini, Mattia Crespi, Olivier Bock, Jose A. Martínez-Lozano, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 81–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, 2018
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The estimation of precipitable water vapour (W) content is of great interest in both meteorological and climatological studies. Sun photometers allowed the development of W automatic estimations with high temporal resolution. A new methodology, based on the hypothesis that the calibration parameters characterizing the atmospheric transmittance are dependent on vertical profiles of temperature, air pressure and moisture typical of each measurement site, has been presented providing good results.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, Claudio Transerici, and Stefano Dietrich
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, 2017
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This study investigates the impact of using lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges (3–24 h). Twenty case studies, occurred over Italy in fall 2012, are selected to show the impact.
Results show the important and positive impact of using lightning data to improve the precipitation forecast. The time range, however, is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with forecasting time.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Monica Campanelli, Jan Fokke Meirink, Ping Wang, Stefania Vergari, Henri Diémoz, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2337–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, 2017
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In this paper we evaluate the performance of two estimates of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), one derived from the Meteosat Second Generation and one from a meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The focus area is Italy, and the performance is evaluated for 12 pyranometers spanning a range of climate conditions, from Mediterranean maritime to Alpine.
Alfonso Ferrone, Daniele Mastrangelo, and Piero Malguzzi
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 123–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-123-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-123-2017, 2017
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The ensemble reforecasts of the CNR-ISAC and ECMWF forecasting systems, both participating to the S2S project, have been combined in a multimodel ensemble. Tercile probability predictions of wintertime 2 m temperature produced through logistic regression outperform the probability estimation based on the direct count of ensemble members, in terms of RPSS and reliability diagrams. Also, it is argued that the logistic regression would not yield further improvements if a larger dataset were used.
Daniele Mastrangelo and Piero Malguzzi
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 85–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-85-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-85-2017, 2017
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The probabilistic evaluation of 2 m temperature forecast of about one year of monthly ensemble forecasts, issued on a monthly basis, is provided. The ranked probability skill score, averaged over all the available cases, shows that the system has a residual predictive skill beyond week 2 on some peculiar regions. Reliability diagrams show that, in general, the probability forecasts of above-normal observed temperature are more reliable than below-normal temperature.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, 2017
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The motivation of this study is to use lightning observations to improve the precipitation forecast at the short range (3 h). For this purpose 20 case studies, occurring in fall 2012, were analyzed using a meteorological model, whose set-up is applicable in real-time weather forecasting. Lightning observations were provided by the LINET network. Results show a systematic improvement of the 3 h precipitation forecast when lightning observations are used.
Davide Putero, Paolo Cristofanelli, Michael Sprenger, Bojan Škerlak, Laura Tositti, and Paolo Bonasoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14203–14217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14203-2016, 2016
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The aim of this paper is to present STEFLUX, a tool to obtain a fast-computing identification of the stratospheric intrusion (SI) events occurring at a specific location and during a specified time window. STEFLUX results are compared to the SI observations at two high-mountain WMO/GAW global stations in Nepal and Italy, representative of two hot spots for climate change. Furthermore, the climatology of SI at the two stations is assessed, and the impact of several climate factors investigated.
Francesco Graziosi, Jgor Arduini, Paolo Bonasoni, Francesco Furlani, Umberto Giostra, Alistair J. Manning, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Peter G. Simmonds, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, and Michela Maione
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12849–12859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, 2016
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Carbon tetrachloride is an ozone-depleting greenhouse gas banned under the Montreal Protocol. Measurements of atmospheric levels combined with global transport models indicate that it is still being emitted, in contrast to what is reported. In order to help solve the "mystery of carbon tetrachloride", we estimated European emissions during 2006–2014 using atmospheric observations and models. We identified emission hot spots and showed inconsistencies in national emission declarations.
Elenio Avolio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Teresa Lo Feudo, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniele Contini, and Stefano Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 69–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, 2016
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The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.
In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.
E. D. Sofen, D. Bowdalo, M. J. Evans, F. Apadula, P. Bonasoni, M. Cupeiro, R. Ellul, I. E. Galbally, R. Girgzdiene, S. Luppo, M. Mimouni, A. C. Nahas, M. Saliba, and K. Tørseth
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 41–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-41-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-41-2016, 2016
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We have brought together all publicly available surface ozone observations from online databases from 1971–2015, with 2200 sites representing regional background conditions appropriate for the evaluation of chemical transport and chemistry-climate models for projects such as the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative. Gridded data sets of ozone metrics (mean, percentiles, MDA8, SOMO35, etc.) are available from the British Atmospheric Data Centre.
D. Putero, P. Cristofanelli, A. Marinoni, B. Adhikary, R. Duchi, S. D. Shrestha, G. P. Verza, T. C. Landi, F. Calzolari, M. Busetto, G. Agrillo, F. Biancofiore, P. Di Carlo, A. K. Panday, M. Rupakheti, and P. Bonasoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13957–13971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13957-2015, 2015
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The aim of this paper is to present a full-year analysis of simultaneous measurements of ozone, black carbon, and aerosol number concentration at Paknajol, in the Kathmandu Valley, one of the global “hot spots” in terms of air pollution. Results indicate persisting poor air quality conditions throughout the measurement period, and suggest that the pollutants' variability is mainly driven by local pollution source activity, local- and large-scale dynamics, photochemistry, and vegetation fires.
M. Rinaldi, S. Gilardoni, M. Paglione, S. Sandrini, S. Fuzzi, P. Massoli, P. Bonasoni, P. Cristofanelli, A. Marinoni, V. Poluzzi, and S. Decesari
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11327–11340, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11327-2015, 2015
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This work highlights the important contribution of organic aerosols to the composition of submicron particles at remote mountain sites. Moreover, it confirms the importance of regional-scale physical and chemical processes and of transboundary transport in determining the background aerosol composition at rural European sites.
H.-W. Jacobi, S. Lim, M. Ménégoz, P. Ginot, P. Laj, P. Bonasoni, P. Stocchi, A. Marinoni, and Y. Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 9, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1685-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1685-2015, 2015
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We detected up to 70 ppb of black carbon (BC) in surface snow in the upper Khumbu Valley, Nepal. With an upgraded snowpack model, including radiative transfer inside the snow, we studied the impact of BC on snow albedo, melting and radiative forcing for the sensitive high altitude regions of the Himalayas. We found that due to BC, the melting of the snow can be shifted by several days up to several weeks depending on meteorological conditions. The impact of BC is larger in dirty snow.
L. Tiriolo, R. C. Torcasio, S. Montesanti, A. M. Sempreviva, C. R. Calidonna, C. Transerici, and S. Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, 2015
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We show a study of the prediction of power production of a wind farm located in Central Italy using RAMS model for wind speed forecast.
G. Curci, L. Ferrero, P. Tuccella, F. Barnaba, F. Angelini, E. Bolzacchini, C. Carbone, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, M. C. Facchini, G. P. Gobbi, J. P. P. Kuenen, T. C. Landi, C. Perrino, M. G. Perrone, G. Sangiorgi, and P. Stocchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2629–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2629-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2629-2015, 2015
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Particulate matter (PM) at ground level is of primary concern for the quality of the air we breathe. Most direct sources of PM are near the ground, but an important fraction of PM is produced by photochemical processes happening also in the upper atmospheric layers. We investigated the contribution of those layers to the PM near the ground and found a significant impact. Nitrate is a major player in the “vertical direction”, owing to its sensitivity to ambient temperature and relative humidity.
S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, E. Coraci, and P. Malguzzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, 2015
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In the HyMeX framework, an intercomparison study of two different configurations of the ISPRA hydro-meteo-marine forecasting system (SIMM) has been performed to assess the forecast skill in predicting high precipitations and very intense storm surges over the northern Adriatic Sea (acqua alta). The results show an objective added value of the use of high-resolution meteorological models, and they suggest the opportunity to develop a time-lagged multi-model ensemble for the acqua alta prediction.
S. Federico, E. Avolio, M. Petracca, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, D. Casella, and S. Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the implementation of a simple model for simulating lightning into the RAMS model.
The methodology is applied to six case studies that occurred in central Italy and the results are verified against LINET observations.
Advantages and weaknesses of the methodology are discussed.
M. Maione, F. Graziosi, J. Arduini, F. Furlani, U. Giostra, D. R. Blake, P. Bonasoni, X. Fang, S. A. Montzka, S. J. O'Doherty, S. Reimann, A. Stohl, and M. K. Vollmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9755–9770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, 2014
P. Ginot, M. Dumont, S. Lim, N. Patris, J.-D. Taupin, P. Wagnon, A. Gilbert, Y. Arnaud, A. Marinoni, P. Bonasoni, and P. Laj
The Cryosphere, 8, 1479–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1479-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1479-2014, 2014
A. Jansa, P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, C. Ramis, E. Richard, R. Romero, and A. Speranza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
A. Buzzi, S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, and D. Mastrangelo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1325–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014, 2014
M. Casaioli, F. Catini, R. Inghilesi, P. Lanucara, P. Malguzzi, S. Mariani, and A. Orasi
Adv. Sci. Res., 11, 11–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-11-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-11-2014, 2014
S. Federico
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3563–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, 2013
Short summary
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the...