Articles | Volume 33, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1495-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1495-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
ANGEO Communicates
| 
15 Dec 2015
ANGEO Communicates |
| 15 Dec 2015
Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk
C. Hernandez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LMD/IPSL, CNRS and École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, Paris, France
C. Keribin
Laboratoire de Mathématiques d'Orsay, Université Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405 Orsay, France
Inria Saclay-Île-de-France, 91405 Orsay, France
P. Drobinski
LMD/IPSL, CNRS and École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, Paris, France
S. Turquety
LMD/IPSL, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Sorbonne Universités, PSL Research University, CNRS, ENS, École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, Paris, France
Related authors
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, and S. Turquety
Ann. Geophys., 33, 931–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, 2015
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, S. Turquety, and J.-L. Dupuy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1331–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, 2015
Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Maya George, Juliette Hadji-Lazaro, and Cathy Clerbaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3128, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass burning has a considerable effect on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and climate, due to the emission of trace gases and aerosols. We examine the relationship between fire variability and the values of carbon monoxide and aerosol optical depth observed by satellite. The observed increase in wildfires has led to a corresponding rise in the mean and extreme values of carbon monoxide and aerosol optical depth during the summer and early autumn across the northern hemisphere.
Antoine Guion, Solène Turquety, Arineh Cholakian, Jan Polcher, Antoine Ehret, and Juliette Lathière
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1043–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1043-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
At high concentrations, tropospheric ozone (O3) deteriorates air quality. Weather conditions are key to understanding the variability in O3 concentration, especially during extremes. We suggest that identifying the presence of combined heatwaves is essential to the study of droughts in canopy–troposphere interactions and O3 concentration. Even so, they are associated, on average, with an increase in O3, partly explained by an increase in precursor emissions and a decrease in dry deposition.
Théo Le Guenedal, Philippe Drobinski, and Peter Tankov
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8001–8039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CATHERINA model produces simulations of cyclone-related annualized damage costs at a country level from climate data and open-source socioeconomic indicators. The framework couples statistical and physical modeling of tropical cyclones to bridge the gap between general circulation and integrated assessment models providing a precise description of tropical-cyclone-related damages.
Alexandre Siméon, Fabien Waquet, Jean-Christophe Péré, Fabrice Ducos, François Thieuleux, Fanny Peers, Solène Turquety, and Isabelle Chiapello
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17775–17805, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17775-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we accurately modelled the optical properties of the biomass burning aerosols (BBA) observed over the Southeast Atlantic region during their transport above clouds and over their source regions, combining a meteorology coupled with chemistry model (WRF-Chem) with innovative satellite absorbing aerosol retrievals (POLDER-3). Our results suggest a low but non-negligible brown carbon fraction (3 %) for the chemical composition of the BBA plumes observed over the source regions.
Yonatan Givon, Douglas Keller Jr., Vered Silverman, Romain Pennel, Philippe Drobinski, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mistral wind is a renowned phenomenon in the Mediterranean, yet its large-scale controlling mechanisms have not been systematically mapped. Here, using a new mistral database for 1981–2016, the upper-tropospheric flow patterns are classified by a self-organizing map algorithm, resulting in 16 distinct patterns related to Rossby wave life cycles. Each pattern has unique surface impact, having implications to understanding mistral predictability, air–sea interaction and their future projections.
Mathieu Lachatre, Sylvain Mailler, Laurent Menut, Solène Turquety, Pasquale Sellitto, Henda Guermazi, Giuseppe Salerno, Tommaso Caltabiano, and Elisa Carboni
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5707–5723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5707-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5707-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Excessive numerical diffusion is a major limitation in the representation of long-range transport in atmospheric models. In the present study, we focus on excessive diffusion in the vertical direction. We explore three possible ways of addressing this problem: increased vertical resolution, an advection scheme with anti-diffusive properties and more accurate representation of vertical wind. This study focused on a particular volcanic eruption event to improve atmospheric transport modeling.
Solène Turquety, Laurent Menut, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, Juliette Hadji-Lazaro, Maya George, Cathy Clerbaux, Daniel Hurtmans, and Pierre-François Coheur
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2981–3009, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2981-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2981-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass burning emissions are a major source of trace gases and aerosols that need to be accounted for in air quality assessment and forecasting. The APIFLAME model presented in this paper allows the calculation of these emissions based on merged satellite observations at hourly time steps and kilometer scales. Implementing emissions in a chemistry transport model allows realistic simulations of fire plumes as illustrated for wildfires in Portugal in August 2016 using the CHIMERE model.
Aurore Dupré, Philippe Drobinski, Jordi Badosa, Christian Briard, and Riwal Plougonven
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2019-88, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In a context of climate change, the wind energy sector has seen a very sharp growth requiring accurate forecasts. Air density is a key variable in the wind energy modeling as it can make the power output varies by almost 20 %. In this paper, a numerically low-cost method is evaluated. This method improves the wind energy modeling by more than 15 % and by almost 40 % when the atmospheric conditions are far from the standards atmospheric conditions used to produce the wind turbine power curve.
Marwa Majdi, Karine Sartelet, Grazia Maria Lanzafame, Florian Couvidat, Youngseob Kim, Mounir Chrit, and Solene Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5543–5569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5543-2019, 2019
Sophie Bastin, Philippe Drobinski, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Olivier Bock, Romain Roehrig, Clemente Gallardo, Dario Conte, Marta Domínguez Alonso, Laurent Li, Piero Lionello, and Ana C. Parracho
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1471–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1471-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses colocated observations of temperature, precipitation and humidity to investigate the triggering of precipitation. It shows that there is a critical value of humidity above which precipitation picks up. This critical value depends on T and varies spatially. It also analyses how this dependency is reproduced in regional climate simulations over Europe. Models with too little and too light precipitation have both lower critical value of humidity and higher probability to exceed it.
Marwa Majdi, Solene Turquety, Karine Sartelet, Carole Legorgeu, Laurent Menut, and Youngseob Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 785–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-785-2019, 2019
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Volker Dreiling, Andreas Fink, Corinne Jambert, Norbert Kalthoff, Peter Knippertz, Russ Ladkin, Sylvain Mailler, Marlon Maranan, Federica Pacifico, Bruno Piguet, Guillaume Siour, and Solène Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 473–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a detailed analysis of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollutants over the Gulf of Guinea coastal region, using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign and modeling. The novelty is that we focus on how these two pollution sources are mixed and transported further inland. We show that during the day pollutants are accumulated along the coastline and transported northward as soon as the daytime convection in the atmospheric boundary layer ceases (16:00 UTC).
Nicolas Da Silva, Sylvain Mailler, and Philippe Drobinski
Ann. Geophys., 36, 321–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics because they absorb radiations (direct effects) and because they act as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effects). The present study shows that aerosol indirect effects reduce summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region through reduction of the radiative heating of the surface and corresponding reductions of surface temperature, resulting in increased atmospheric stability in the presence of high aerosol loads.
Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Solène Turquety, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, and Rémi Meynadier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2687–2707, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the DACCIWA project, the tropospheric chemical composition in large cities along the Gulf of Guinea is modelled using WRF and CHIMERE, with and without biomass burning emissions. The difference shows the net impact of fires on air quality in Lagos and Abidjan.
Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, Solène Turquety, Régis Briant, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, and Suzanne Crumeyrolle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 445–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CO and PM2.5 are analyzed over the Guinean Gulf coastal region during the beginning of the 2006 West African monsoon. A biomass burning plume from Central Africa is observed since June at the Guinean coast. In June, the modeled anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations are higher than in May or July. An important part of the pollution emitted along the coastline is transported to the north at night within the surface layer and within the nocturnal low-level jet.
Bastien Sauvage, Alain Fontaine, Sabine Eckhardt, Antoine Auby, Damien Boulanger, Hervé Petetin, Ronan Paugam, Gilles Athier, Jean-Marc Cousin, Sabine Darras, Philippe Nédélec, Andreas Stohl, Solène Turquety, Jean-Pierre Cammas, and Valérie Thouret
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 15271–15292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15271-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the scientific community with a SOFT-IO tool based on the coupling of Lagrangian modeling with emission inventories and aircraft CO measurements, which is able to calculate the contribution of the sources and geographical origins of CO measurements, with good performances. Calculated CO added-value products will help scientists in interpreting large IAGOS CO data set. SOFT-IO could further be applied to other CO data sets or used to help validate emission inventories.
Sylvain Mailler, Laurent Menut, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, Myrto Valari, Florian Couvidat, Guillaume Siour, Solène Turquety, Régis Briant, Paolo Tuccella, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Laurent Létinois, Kostantinos Markakis, and Frédérik Meleux
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2397–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2397-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
CHIMERE is a chemistry-transport model initially designed for box-modelling of the regional atmospheric composition. In the recent years, CHIMERE has been extended to be able to model atmospheric composition at all scales from urban to hemispheric scale, which implied major changes on the coordinate systems as well as on physical processes. This study describes how and why these changes have been brought to the model, largely increasing the range of its possible use.
Bénédicte Jourdier and Philippe Drobinski
Ann. Geophys., 35, 691–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-691-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-35-691-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wind resource assessments often rely on models of wind-speed statistics using a Weibull distribution. This study shows how its use impacts the prediction of the wind energy content and the power output. Three methods for fitting the Weibull distribution are tested (maximum likelihood, moments and WAsP). The first two methods overestimate the production up to 5 %. The WAsP method always produces errors lower than 2 %. A Rayleigh–Rice distribution is also tested and shows even better skill.
Régis Briant, Paolo Tuccella, Adrien Deroubaix, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, Laurent Menut, Sylvain Mailler, and Solène Turquety
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 927–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-927-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-927-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the coupling of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model with the WRF meteorological model, using the OASIS3-MCT coupler. WRF meteorological fields along with CHIMERE aerosol optical properties are exchanged through the coupler at a high frequency in order to model the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects.
S. Mailler, L. Menut, A. G. di Sarra, S. Becagli, T. Di Iorio, B. Bessagnet, R. Briant, P. Formenti, J.-F. Doussin, J. L. Gómez-Amo, M. Mallet, G. Rea, G. Siour, D. M. Sferlazzo, R. Traversi, R. Udisti, and S. Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1219–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1219-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1219-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the impact of aerosols on tropospheric photolysis rates at Lampedusa during the CharMEx/ADRIMED campaign in June 2013. It is shown by using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model (CTM) as well as in situ and remote-sensing measurements that taking into account the radiative effect of the tropospheric aerosols improves the ability of the model to reproduce the observed photolysis rates. It is hence important for CTMs to include the radiative effect of aerosols on photochemistry.
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, and S. Turquety
Ann. Geophys., 33, 931–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, 2015
G. Rea, S. Turquety, L. Menut, R. Briant, S. Mailler, and G. Siour
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8013–8036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8013-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8013-2015, 2015
L. Menut, G. Rea, S. Mailler, D. Khvorostyanov, and S. Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7897–7911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7897-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7897-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric composition was extensively studied in the European Mediterranean region and during summer 2013 within the framework of the ADRIMED project. During the campaign experiment, the WRF and CHIMERE models were used in forecast mode in order to help scientists to decide whether intensive observation periods should be triggered or not. This study quantifies the origin of the forecast error by comparing several forecast leads to the corresponding measurements.
C. Hernandez, P. Drobinski, S. Turquety, and J.-L. Dupuy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1331–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015, 2015
L. K. Emmons, S. R. Arnold, S. A. Monks, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, K. S. Law, J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, I. Bouarar, S. Turquety, Y. Long, B. Duncan, S. Steenrod, S. Strode, J. Flemming, J. Mao, J. Langner, A. M. Thompson, D. Tarasick, E. C. Apel, D. R. Blake, R. C. Cohen, J. Dibb, G. S. Diskin, A. Fried, S. R. Hall, L. G. Huey, A. J. Weinheimer, A. Wisthaler, T. Mikoviny, J. Nowak, J. Peischl, J. M. Roberts, T. Ryerson, C. Warneke, and D. Helmig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6721–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven 3-D tropospheric chemistry models have been compared and evaluated with observations in the Arctic during the International Polar Year (IPY 2008). Large differences are seen among the models, particularly related to the model chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen (NOx, PAN, HNO3) partitioning. Consistency among the models in the underestimation of CO, ethane and propane indicates the emission inventory is too low for these compounds.
L. Menut, S. Mailler, G. Siour, B. Bessagnet, S. Turquety, G. Rea, R. Briant, M. Mallet, J. Sciare, P. Formenti, and F. Meleux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6159–6182, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6159-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6159-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The ozone and aerosol concentration variability is studied over the Euro-Mediterranean area during the months of June and July 2013 and in the framework of the ADRIMED project. A first analysis is performed using meteorological variables, ozone and aerosol concentrations using routine network station, satellite and specific ADRIMED project airborne measurements. This analysis is complemented by modeling using the WRF and CHIMERE regional models.
S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, S. A. Monks, K. S. Law, D. A. Ridley, S. Turquety, S. Tilmes, J. L. Thomas, I. Bouarar, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. Mao, B. N. Duncan, S. Steenrod, Y. Yoshida, J. Langner, and Y. Long
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The extent to which forest fires produce the air pollutant and greenhouse gas ozone (O3) in the atmosphere at high latitudes in not well understood. We have compared how fire emissions produce O3 and its precursors in several models of atmospheric chemistry. We find enhancements in O3 in air dominated by fires in all models, which increase on average as fire emissions age. We also find that in situ O3 production in the Arctic is sensitive to details of organic chemistry and vertical lifting.
S. A. Monks, S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, K. S. Law, S. Turquety, B. N. Duncan, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, J. Langner, J. Mao, Y. Long, J. L. Thomas, S. D. Steenrod, J. C. Raut, C. Wilson, M. P. Chipperfield, G. S. Diskin, A. Weinheimer, H. Schlager, and G. Ancellet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3575–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-model simulations of Arctic CO, O3 and OH are evaluated using observations. Models show highly variable concentrations but the relative importance of emission regions and types is robust across the models, demonstrating the importance of biomass burning as a source. Idealised tracer experiments suggest that some of the model spread is due to variations in simulated transport from Europe in winter and from Asia throughout the year.
L. Menut, S. Mailler, G. Siour, B. Bessagnet, S. Turquety, G. Rea, R. Briant, M. Mallet, J. Sciare, and P. Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23075-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23075-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
S. Turquety, L. Menut, B. Bessagnet, A. Anav, N. Viovy, F. Maignan, and M. Wooster
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 587–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-587-2014, 2014
M. Boichu, L. Menut, D. Khvorostyanov, L. Clarisse, C. Clerbaux, S. Turquety, and P.-F. Coheur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8569–8584, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8569-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8569-2013, 2013
L. Menut, B. Bessagnet, D. Khvorostyanov, M. Beekmann, N. Blond, A. Colette, I. Coll, G. Curci, G. Foret, A. Hodzic, S. Mailler, F. Meleux, J.-L. Monge, I. Pison, G. Siour, S. Turquety, M. Valari, R. Vautard, and M. G. Vivanco
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 981–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-981-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-981-2013, 2013
Y. R'Honi, L. Clarisse, C. Clerbaux, D. Hurtmans, V. Duflot, S. Turquety, Y. Ngadi, and P.-F. Coheur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4171–4181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4171-2013, 2013
S. Stromatas, S. Turquety, L. Menut, H. Chepfer, J. C. Péré, G. Cesana, and B. Bessagnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1543-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1543-2012, 2012
