Articles | Volume 30, issue 5
Regular paper
14 May 2012
Regular paper |  | 14 May 2012

On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index

O. A. Amariutei and N. Yu. Ganushkina

Abstract. An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (VBs) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min.