14 Mar 2023
 | 14 Mar 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ANGEO.

On the set of deterministic phenomena preceding the earthquake June 25, 2021 with a magnitude of 5.4 near the city of Yayladere (Turkey)

Alexandr Volvach, Lev P. Kogan, Konstantin H. Kanonidi, Igor Bubukin, Valeria B. Shtenberg, and Larisa N. Volvach

Abstract. The article examines the 5.4 magnitude earthquake that occurred on June 25, 2021 in the vicinity of Yayladere (Turkey). The analysis of the geomagnetic measurements carried out revealed a set of deterministic processes that preceded this event and are interpreted as its precursors. An estimate is made of the average time between the interval of existence of such phenomena and the moment of the earthquake under consideration. As a result, close values of the corresponding averaged time intervals were obtained for the statistics of all three components of the geomagnetic field considered in the article. The proposed technique can be used to predict seismic processes in various regions of the world in a near real-time mode.

Alexandr Volvach et al.

Status: open (until 25 Apr 2023)

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Alexandr Volvach et al.

Alexandr Volvach et al.


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Short summary
A new method is proposed for determining the precursors of upcoming earthquakes, which is based on the change in the level of small-scale fluctuations of the empirical probability density of the measured physical field under the influence of the process of "final preparation" of a seismic event. This makes it possible to study seismic processes with a fairly accurate reference to the current time.