Sean Elvidge, Humberto C. Godinez, and Matthew J. Angling
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2279–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2279-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2279-2016, 2016
This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. This paper shows that use of MMEs for forecasting thermospheric densities can reduce errors by 60 %.