23 Feb 2011
23 Feb 2011
Forecasting relativistic electron flux using dynamic multiple regression models
H.-L. Wei1, S. A. Billings1, A. Surjalal Sharma2, S. Wing3, R. J. Boynton1, and S. N. Walker1
H.-L. Wei et al.
H.-L. Wei1, S. A. Billings1, A. Surjalal Sharma2, S. Wing3, R. J. Boynton1, and S. N. Walker1
- 1Dept. of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK
- 2Dept. of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- 3Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, MD, USA
- 1Dept. of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK
- 2Dept. of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- 3Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, MD, USA
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Received: 06 Jan 2011 – Revised: 18 Feb 2011 – Accepted: 19 Feb 2011 – Published: 23 Feb 2011
Abstract. The forecast of high energy electron fluxes in the radiation belts is important because the exposure of modern spacecraft to high energy particles can result in significant damage to onboard systems. A comprehensive physical model of processes related to electron energisation that can be used for such a forecast has not yet been developed. In the present paper a systems identification approach is exploited to deduce a dynamic multiple regression model that can be used to predict the daily maximum of high energy electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit from data. It is shown that the model developed provides reliable predictions.
