The possible statistical relation of Pc1 pulsations to Earthquake occurrence at low latitudes

Abstract. We examine the association between earthquakes and Pc1 pulsations observed at a low-latitude station in Parkfield, California. The period under examination is ~7.5 years in total, from February 1999 to July 2006, and we use an automatic identification algorithm to extract information on Pc1 pulsations from the magnetometer data. These pulsations are then statistically correlated to earthquakes from the USGS NEIC catalog within a radius of 200 km around the magnetometer, and M>3.0. Results indicate that there is an enhanced occurrence probability of Pc1 pulsations ~5–15 days in advance of the earthquakes, during the daytime. We quantify the statistical significance and show that such an enhancement is unlikely to have occurred due to chance alone. We then examine the effect of declustering our earthquake catalog, and show that even though significance decreases, there is still a statistically significant daytime enhancement prior to the earthquakes. Finally, we select only daytime Pc1 pulsations as the fiducial time of our analysis, and show that earthquakes are ~3–5 times more likely to occur in the week following these pulsations, than normal. Comparing these results to other events, it is preliminarily shown that the normal earthquake probability is unaffected by geomagnetic activity, or a random event sequence.