Journal cover Journal topic
Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 1.490 IF 1.490
  • IF 5-year value: 1.445 IF 5-year
    1.445
  • CiteScore value: 2.9 CiteScore
    2.9
  • SNIP value: 0.789 SNIP 0.789
  • IPP value: 1.48 IPP 1.48
  • SJR value: 0.74 SJR 0.74
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 88 Scimago H
    index 88
  • h5-index value: 21 h5-index 21
Volume 23, issue 10
Ann. Geophys., 23, 3229–3235, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-23-3229-2005
© Author(s) 2005. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Ann. Geophys., 23, 3229–3235, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-23-3229-2005
© Author(s) 2005. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  30 Nov 2005

30 Nov 2005

A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

X. Gu1 and J. Jiang2 X. Gu and J. Jiang
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Sever Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
  • 2Training Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

Abstract. A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation