Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-20
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-20
11 Oct 2024
 | 11 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ANGEO.

Predicting Geomagnetic Indices for Space Weather Applications in Solar Cycle 25

Mu He and Hongbing Zhu

Abstract. This study investigated the relationship between geomagnetic indices (Ap and DST) and solar activity with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and the novel LSTM+ forecasting model. The NMDS analysis revealed a stronger association of Ap with overall solar activity and solar wind conditions compared to DST, highlighting the influence of elevated plasma flow speed and proton temperature on geomagnetic disturbances. The LSTM+ model, incorporating a dynamic reforecast procedure, demonstrated high accuracy in predicting Ap and DST, achieving strong performance metrics for SC-24. Based on the model and historical trends, the peak Ap and trough DST for SC-25 are projected to occur between May 2026 and January 2027, aligning with the observed lag between sunspot number and geomagnetic indices. These findings enhance our understanding of solar-terrestrial interactions and provide a valuable tool for space weather prediction, crucial for mitigating potential impacts on technological infrastructure.

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Mu He and Hongbing Zhu

Status: open (until 29 Nov 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on angeo-2024-20', Ana G. Elias, 31 Oct 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on angeo-2024-20', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2024 reply
Mu He and Hongbing Zhu
Mu He and Hongbing Zhu

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Short summary
This research explored how solar activity affects Earth's magnetic field. We found that bursts of solar energy, like fast solar wind, increase disturbances in the magnetic field. We used a useful model, which suggests the strongest disturbances will occur between mid-2026 and early 2027, aligning with historical patterns. This work improves our ability to forecast space weather, which is vital for protecting satellites and power grids from harmful solar radiation.