Predicting Geomagnetic Indices for Space Weather Applications in Solar Cycle 25

Abstract. This study investigated the relationship between geomagnetic indices (Ap and DST) and solar activity with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and the novel LSTM+ forecasting model. The NMDS analysis revealed a stronger association of Ap with overall solar activity and solar wind conditions compared to DST, highlighting the influence of elevated plasma flow speed and proton temperature on geomagnetic disturbances. The LSTM+ model, incorporating a dynamic reforecast procedure, demonstrated high accuracy in predicting Ap and DST, achieving strong performance metrics for SC-24. Based on the model and historical trends, the peak Ap and trough DST for SC-25 are projected to occur between May 2026 and January 2027, aligning with the observed lag between sunspot number and geomagnetic indices. These findings enhance our understanding of solar-terrestrial interactions and provide a valuable tool for space weather prediction, crucial for mitigating potential impacts on technological infrastructure.