The coupling between the solar wind and proton fluxes at GEO

Abstract. The relationship between the solar wind and the proton flux at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) is investigated using the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis. The ERR analysis is able to search for the most appropriate inputs that control the evolution of the system. This approach is a black box method and is able to derive a mathematical model of a system from input-output data. This method is used to analyse eight energy ranges of the proton flux at GEO from 80 keV to 14.5 MeV. The inputs to the algorithm were solar wind velocity, density and pressure; the Dst index; the solar energetic proton (SEP) flux; and a function of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tangential magnitude and clock angle. The results show that for lowest five energy channels (80 to 800 keV) the GEO proton fluxes are controlled by the solar wind velocity with a lag of two to three days. However, above 350 keV, the SEP fluxes, accounts for a significant portion of the GEO proton flux variance. For the highest three energy channels (0.74 to 14.5 MeV), the SEPs account for the majority of the ERR. The results also show an anisotropy of protons with gyrocenters inside GEO and outside GEO, where the protons inside GEO are controlled partly by the Dst index and also an IMF-clock angle function.