01 Jun 2011
01 Jun 2011
Data derived NARMAX Dst model
R. J. Boynton1, M. A. Balikhin1, S. A. Billings1, A. S. Sharma2, and O. A. Amariutei3
R. J. Boynton et al.
R. J. Boynton1, M. A. Balikhin1, S. A. Billings1, A. S. Sharma2, and O. A. Amariutei3
- 1Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- 2Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- 3Geophysical Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- 1Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- 2Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- 3Geophysical Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
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Received: 28 Feb 2011 – Revised: 17 May 2011 – Accepted: 18 May 2011 – Published: 01 Jun 2011
Abstract. The NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology is applied to identify a mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems using input and output data. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions, derived from analytical or data based methods, are employed as the inputs to such models and the outputs are geomagnetic indices. The newly deduced coupling function, p1/2V4/3BTsin6(θ/2), has been implemented as an input to model the Dst dynamics. It was shown that the identified model has a very good forecasting ability, especially with the geomagnetic storms.
