Data derived NARMAX Dst model
- 1Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- 2Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- 3Geophysical Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Abstract. The NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology is applied to identify a mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems using input and output data. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions, derived from analytical or data based methods, are employed as the inputs to such models and the outputs are geomagnetic indices. The newly deduced coupling function, p1/2V4/3BTsin6(θ/2), has been implemented as an input to model the Dst dynamics. It was shown that the identified model has a very good forecasting ability, especially with the geomagnetic storms.