Data derived NARMAX Dst model

Abstract. The NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology is applied to identify a mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems using input and output data. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions, derived from analytical or data based methods, are employed as the inputs to such models and the outputs are geomagnetic indices. The newly deduced coupling function, p^1/2V^4/3B_Tsin⁶(θ/2), has been implemented as an input to model the Dst dynamics. It was shown that the identified model has a very good forecasting ability, especially with the geomagnetic storms.