Monitoring and forecasting of great radiation hazards for spacecraft and aircrafts by online cosmic ray data

Abstract. We show that an exact forecast of great radiation hazard in space, in the magnetosphere, in the atmosphere and on the ground can be made by using high-energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and higher) whose transportation from the Sun is characterized by a much bigger diffusion coefficient than for small and middle energy particles. Therefore, high energy particles come from the Sun much earlier (8-20 min after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than the main part of smaller energy particles (more than 30-60 min later), causing radiation hazard for electronics and personal health, as well as spacecraft and aircrafts. We describe here principles of an automatic set of programs that begin with "FEP-Search", used to determine the beginning of a large FEP event. After a positive signal from "FEP-Search", the following programs start working: "FEP-Research/Spectrum", and then "FEP-Research/Time of Ejection", "FEP-Research /Source" and "FEP-Research/Diffusion", which online determine properties of FEP generation and propagation. On the basis of the obtained information, the next set of programs immediately start to work: "FEP-Forecasting/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Forecasting/Aircrafts", "FEP-Forecasting/Ground", which determine the expected differential and integral fluxes and total fluency for spacecraft on different orbits, aircrafts on different airlines, and on the ground, depending on altitude and cutoff rigidity. If the level of radiation hazard is expected to be dangerous for high level technology or/and personal health, the following programs will be used "FEP-Alert/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Alert/ Aircrafts", "FEP-Alert/Ground".