Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

Abstract. We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO₂, solar total irradiance (S_tot) and solar UV (S_UV). The response is largest in the S_UV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO₂ or S_tot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.

Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions)