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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 18, issue 10
Ann. Geophys., 18, 1349–1359, 2000
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-000-1349-3
© European Geosciences Union 2000
Ann. Geophys., 18, 1349–1359, 2000
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-000-1349-3
© European Geosciences Union 2000

  31 Oct 2000

31 Oct 2000

Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

V. Pérez-Muñuzuri and I. R. Gelpi V. Pérez-Muñuzuri and I. R. Gelpi
  • Group of Nonlinear Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Santiago de Compostela, E-15706 Santiago de Compostela, Spain

Abstract. A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general) – General (new fields)

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