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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 16, issue 1
Ann. Geophys., 16, 116–124, 1998
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-997-0116-0
© European Geosciences Union 1998
Ann. Geophys., 16, 116–124, 1998
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-997-0116-0
© European Geosciences Union 1998

  31 Jan 1998

31 Jan 1998

Non-linear modelling of monthly mean vorticity time changes: an application to the western Mediterranean

M. Finizio and S. Palmieri M. Finizio and S. Palmieri
  • University of Rome "La Sapienza", Dep. of Physics, Piazzale A.Moro 2, I-00185 Rome Italy

Abstract. Starting from a number of observables in the form of time-series of meteorological elements in various areas of the northern hemisphere, a model capable of fitting past records and predicting monthly vorticity time changes in the western Mediterranean is implemented. A new powerful statistical methodology is introduced (MARS) in order to capture the non-linear dynamics of time-series representing the available 40-year history of the hemispheric circulation. The developed model is tested on a suitable independent data set. An ensemble forecast exercise is also carried out to check model stability in reference to the uncertainty of input quantities.

Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics · General circulation ocean-atmosphere interactions · Synoptic-scale meteorology

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