Uncertainties in field-line tracing in the magnetosphere.
Part I: the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field

Abstract. The technique of tracing along magnetic field lines is widely used in magnetospheric physics to provide a "magnetic frame of reference'' that facilitates both the planning of experiments and the interpretation of observations. The precision of any such magnetic frame of reference depends critically on the accurate representation of the various sources of magnetic field in the magnetosphere. In order to consider this important problem systematically, a study is initiated to estimate first the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere that arise solely from the published (standard) errors in the specification of the geomagnetic field of internal origin. Because of the complexity in computing these uncertainties for the complete geomagnetic field of internal origin, attention is focused in this preliminary paper on the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing that result from the standard errors in just the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field. An exact analytic equation exists for the magnetic field lines of an arbitrary linear combination of axisymmetric multipoles. This equation is used to derive numerical estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing that are due to the published standard errors in the axisymmetric spherical harmonic coefficients (i.e. g_n⁰ ± δg_n⁰). Numerical results determined from the analytic equation are compared with computational results based on stepwise numerical integration along magnetic field lines. Excellent agreement is obtained between the analytical and computational methods in the axisymmetric case, which provides great confidence in the accuracy of the computer program used for stepwise numerical integration along magnetic field lines. This computer program is then used in the following paper to estimate the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere that arise from the published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmonic coefficients, which define the complete (non-axisymmetric) geomagnetic field of internal origin. Numerical estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, calculated here for the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field, should be regarded as "first approximations'' in the sense that such estimates are only as accurate as the published standard errors in the set of axisymmetric spherical harmonic coefficients. However, all procedures developed in this preliminary paper can be applied to the derivation of more realistic estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, following further progress in the determination of more accurate standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients.