the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 05 Nov 2024
Evaluating F10.7 and F30 Radio Fluxes as Long-Term Solar Proxies of Energy Deposition in the Thermosphere
Abstract. We use model simulations and observations to examine how well the F10.7 and F30 solar radio fluxes represent solar forcing in the thermosphere during the last 60 years of weakening solar activity. We found that increased saturation of radio fluxes during the last two extended solar minima leads to an overestimation of solar energy deposition, which manifests as a change in the linear relation between thermospheric parameters and F10.7. On the other hand, the linear relation between thermospheric parameters and F30 remains nearly the same throughout the whole studied period because of a recently found relative increase of F30 with respect to F10.7. This explains the earlier finding that F30 correlates better with several ionospheric and thermospheric parameters than F10.7 during the last decades. We note that continued evaluation is needed to see how well F10.7 and F30 will serve as solar proxies in the future when solar activity may start increasing toward the next grand maximum.
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RC1: 'Comment on angeo-2024-23', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Nov 2024
Reviewer comments to the paper by Qian and Mursula
The paper is aimed to answering the question: how well the F10.7 and F30 solar fluxes represent solar EUV forcing in the thermosphere.
In the Introduction, the authors note that both proxies are often used in studies of long-term changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere.
Section 2 describes briefly the model and experimental data used in the analysis. The model simulation was conducted using the TIME-GCM model with the F10.7 and F30 fluxes as SA proxies. The set of thermospheric density from atmospheric drag observations (Emmert et al., 2021) was used to be compared to the simulation results. The measurements by the GOLD equipment onboard the SES-14 satellite were used to compare with the changes in the F10.7 and F30 fluxes in 2018-2024.
Figure 1 shows a comparison of the F10.7 and F30 solar fluxes over a period of 1961 – 2019. The most important point in Fig 1 is that during this period, F30 increased with respect to F10.7.
A comparison of the modeled (with F30 and F10.7 as a proxy) and observed (derived from satellite orbit changes) mass density for 1967 to 2019 is presented in Fig.2. It demonstrates distinctly that the ratio of two densities increases with time. However, the slope of the linear fit of that increase is much higher for F30 than for F10.7. If only a period to 1996 is considered, the above slope decreases for F10.7 but does not change for F30.The authors discuss the features seen in Fig 2 in terms of changes in the solar EUV fluxes with time.
Further, the authors compare in Fig. 3 the changes in GOLD Qeuv flux during 2018-2024 to the changes in the F30 and F10.7 solar proxies. Analyzing the Qeuv/F10.7 and Qeuv/F30 ratios, the authors note that the linear approximations of this ratio are different for the period of the extended SA minimum in 2018-2020 and the period after it.
Some aspects of the changes in the SA EUV flux related to the aforementioned results are considered in Discussion. For scientists involved in deriving long-term trends in the thermospheric and ionospheric parameters, the most important is the conclusion “…that the F30 flux is more suitable to be used as a solar EUV proxy in thermospheric modeling.”
As far as a correct allowance for the SA changes is a very important step in attempts to reveal long-term trends in the thermosphere and ionosphere, the paper under review presents a very important study. I recommend publication of the paper with a minor revision.
My suggestions are as follows.
The increase with time in the ratio of modeled and observed densities in Fig 2c at the first sight leads to an inevitable assumption that it manifests a long-term trend in the density itself. In other words: if the model gives a “correct” density without trends, the real density becomes lower during the later years due to a negative trend in it. I think that such impression could visit many readers, so the point deserves at least a brief comment in the text.
In my opinion, it is worth mentioning that the conclusion that F30 is better than F10.7 has been obtained by several research groups based on the analysis of changes in F2-layer parameter data.
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Liying Qian, 03 Dec 2024
We thank the Reviewer for a helpful review. Note that in this reply, the line numbers refer to the revised paper with track-changes.
The increase with time in the ratio of modeled and observed densities in Fig 2c at the first sight leads to an inevitable assumption that it manifests a long-term trend in the density itself. In other words: if the model gives a “correct” density without trends, the real density becomes lower during the later years due to a negative trend in it. I think that such impression could visit many readers, so the point deserves at least a brief comment in the text.
Reply: In the revision (lines 193-203), we added the following text: “Note the upward linear slope in the density ratio between simulated and orbit-derived mass density for the period 1967–2019 in Figures 2b and 2c, which will be discussed later. This slope does not describe the long-term effect caused by increasing CO₂ concentrations. Both the simulated and orbit-derived mass densities include the trend driven by the rising CO₂ level: the model simulations incorporate time-varying CO₂ concentrations measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Qian et al., 2006), and Emmert (2015) demonstrated that the height dependence of orbit-derived mass-density trends agree with model simulations of the impact of increasing CO₂. The significantly larger slope (about 0.0021) of the F10.7 model for the longer period 1967–2019 arises because the F10.7 model is unable to explain the very small density during the unusually low solar minima of 2008–2009 and 2019–2020 because of enhanced saturation of the F10.7 flux. This will be discussed further later.”
This addition will clarify the paper, for which we wish to thank the Reviewer.In my opinion, it is worth mentioning that the conclusion that F30 is better than F10.7 has been obtained by several research groups based on the analysis of changes in F2-layer parameter data.
Reply: We added the following points in the manuscript:
- Lines 58-60: In addition, based on analysis of changes in F2-layer parameter data, several research groups have found that F30 is better than F10.7 in representing F2 parameters.
2 Lines 68-70: Danilov and Berbeneva [2024] also found that F30 is the best solar proxy to describe the seasonally dependent local-time variation of foF2.
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Liying Qian, 03 Dec 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on angeo-2024-23', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2024
This paper evaluated the performance of two different solar proxies (F10.7 and F30) in characterizing the long-term trends in the thermosphere-ionosphere system. The authors conducted two model runs driven by F107 flux and scaled F30 flux, respectively, and suggested that the F30 flux should be the better one, especially for the period including solar minimum. This study emphasizes the need for careful selection of solar activity proxies, which is imperative when discussing the long-term trends in the upper atmosphere. The paper is also well-structured, easy to follow, and has a distinct conclusion, although I have a simple question on the data processing. So, I suggested that the paper be published after minor revisions.
Minor comments:
- Figure 2: I found that the ratio of simulated and observed mass densities also have a clear solar dependence. So, I am curious about whether the calculation of linear trends shown here (dashed lines in Figures 2b and 2c) excluded the solar effect. If not, the inconsistency in the F10.7 case (Figure 2b) might also be introduced by the different solar levels in the starting and ending years.
- Figure 3: The F30* is linearly correlated with F10.7, so the ratio of F10.7/Qeuv and F30*/Qeuv should also be in linear correlation because the two are both numerators. So, I am curious why the lines in Figures 3b and 3c are not strictly correlated.
- Please unify the symbols of “-” and “–” when referring to time periods.
Related Reference Suggestion:
Elias, A. G., Martinis, C. R., de Haro Barbas, B. F., Medina, F. D., Zossi, B. S., Fagre, M., and Duran, T. (2023). Comparative analysis of extreme ultraviolet solar radiation proxies during minimum activity levels. Earth Planet. Phys., 7(5), 540–547. DOI: 10.26464/epp2023050
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-23-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Liying Qian, 03 Dec 2024
We thank the Reviewer for a helpful review.
Note that in this response, the line numbers refer to the revised paper with track-changes. Figure R1 is located at the end of the revised paper with track-changes.Figure 2: I found that the ratio of simulated and observed mass densities also have a clear solar dependence. So, I am curious about whether the calculation of linear trends shown here (dashed lines in Figures 2b and 2c) excluded the solar effect. If not, the inconsistency in the F10.7 case (Figure 2b) might also be introduced by the different solar levels in the starting and ending years.
In Figures 2b and 2c, the ratios remove most of solar cycle variability. However, the ratios still fluctuate roughly in phase with the solar cycle until about 2000, indicating that the model tends to slightly overestimate the mass density during solar maxima and underestimate it during solar minima (lines 206–210). Reviewer is quite correct in noting that the trends depend on the timing (or, in this case, solar cycle phase) of the start and end points used to calculate the trends. However, since even the shorter period includes three solar cycles in the fit, a change in the start/end points does not change the fits significantly. Moreover, the main point here is not the absolute value of the slope but rather the fact that, because of the rising level of minimum-time ratios in the last two minima, the longer fit will always give a larger slope.
Figure 3: The F30* is linearly correlated with F10.7, so the ratio of F10.7/Qeuv and F30*/Qeuv should also be in linear correlation because the two are both numerators. So, I am curious why the lines in Figures 3b and 3c are not strictly correlated.
This is an excellent question. We believe the following two reasons explain why the lines in Figures 3b and 3c are not strictly correlated, despite F30* are linearly correlated with F10.7:
- While F30* and F10.7 exhibit a linear correlation, there is some scatter around the linear fit (see Figure R1a).
- The linear relationship between F30* and F10.7 differs at low solar activity levels (F10.7 < ~90) compared to higher solar activity levels (F10.7 > ~90) (Figure R1a).
As a result, depending on the solar activity level (Figure R1d), the lines in Figures 3b and 3c (repeated as Figures R1b and R1c) are not strictly correlated.
Please unify the symbols of “-” and “–” when referring to time periods.
Done (line 353).
Related Reference Suggestion:
Elias, A. G., Martinis, C. R., de Haro Barbas, B. F., Medina, F. D., Zossi, B. S., Fagre, M., and Duran, T. (2023). Comparative analysis of extreme ultraviolet solar radiation proxies during minimum activity levels. Earth Planet. Phys., 7(5), 540–547. DOI: 10.26464/epp2023050
Added (line 248; lines 423-425).
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RC3: 'Comment on angeo-2024-23', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Dec 2024
I am completely satisfied by the authors responses and changes in the text. I confirm my recommendation to publish the paper
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-23-RC3 -
AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Liying Qian, 03 Dec 2024
We are delighted to hear that you are satisfied with our responses and the changes made to the text.
We greatly appreciate your recommendation to publish the paper and your constructive comments throughout the review process, which have helped us improve the quality of our work.
Thank you once again for your valuable feedback and support.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-23-AC3
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AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Liying Qian, 03 Dec 2024
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RC4: 'Comment on angeo-2024-23', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Dec 2024
This paper presents an interesting study on the assessment of two solar activity EUV proxies for long term studies, F10.7 and F30, but it is incomplete and a couple of essential points are not discussed and quantified.
In your paper you do not discuss the problems in the Nobeyama data and their degraded quality since 2020. There are many outages and data problems since 2020 as can be seen on their website (http://solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norp/html/ObsLogFrom2020.html). Since you are presenting small drifts, it is very important to take into account the quality (see Fig_f30p-vs-c_cycle23; the precision given in the CLS data file) and stability of the instrument calibration. There actually is a detailed paper on that for F10.7, but not for F30.
I miss a discussion of the CLS radio flux data file, which contains interpolated values in case of gaps or outliers (the flags are explained in the header of the CLS data file; see figures Fig_f30f_2023 and Fig_f30f_2019 with long periods with interpolated F30), and what consequences that may have for your study.
You have used the conversion formula from the Yaya et al. 2017 paper (Dudok de Wit and Bruinsma, 2014 is erroneously given as reference), which is based on a regression from 1970-2014. Why have you not done your own regression? Because the period has a big impact on the regression parameters, and therefore certainly on your results via EUVAC. Do your results and conclusions change when you use other regression parameters? (see the regression results in figure Fig_f30c-f107c_linreg)
There is also the question of instrument change, which may partly contribute to the difference, but which is not discussed in the paper:
Observations of the 10.7 cm flux have been made routinely by radio telescopes at Ottawa from 14 February 1947 until 31 May 1991, and thereafter by a similar set of instruments at Penticton.
Observations began on 6 November 1951 in Toyokawa at 8 cm, see Table 1. From 24 February 1994 to 14 May 1994, all but the observations at 8 cm were interrupted as the antennas were moved from their location at Toyokawa to nearby Nobeyama.
Figure 2: max in 1970 and 2012 are better with F10.7. F30 leads to too small densities in 1970, and too high in 2012. This drift in F30 has been detected and corrected in the DTM2020 paper (Bruinsma and Boniface, 2021). Calculation of DTM2020 density ratios with F10.7 and F30 and TLE densities at 250 km showed no trends, not with F10.7 nor with F30.
Another point concerns thermosphere cooling due to increasing CO2 levels, which leads to lower densities mostly notable at solar minimum (decrease estimated at 2-5% per decade). That effect will also lead to a drift in the density ratios depending on how accurate your model takes that into account.
All points above should be discussed and clarified, and I therefore recommend moderate revision.
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