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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ANGEO</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Annales Geophysicae</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ANGEO</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Ann. Geophys.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1432-0576</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/angeo-23-3095-2005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Predictions of local ground geomagnetic field fluctuations during the 7-10 November 2004 events studied with solar wind driven models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wintoft</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wik</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lundstedt</surname>
<given-names>H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eliasson</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<issue>9</issue>
<fpage>3095</fpage>
<lpage>3101</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2005 P. Wintoft et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2005</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/23/3095/2005/angeo-23-3095-2005.html">This article is available from https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/23/3095/2005/angeo-23-3095-2005.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/23/3095/2005/angeo-23-3095-2005.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/23/3095/2005/angeo-23-3095-2005.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The 7-10 November 2004 period contains two events for which the local ground
magnetic field was severely disturbed and simultaneously, the solar wind
displayed several shocks and negative &lt;i&gt;B&lt;sub&gt;z&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt; periods. Using empirical models
the 10-min RMS  and  at Brorfelde (BFE, 11.67&amp;deg; E,
55.63&amp;deg; N), Denmark, are predicted. The models are recurrent neural
networks with 10-min solar wind plasma and magnetic field data as inputs.
The predictions show a good agreement during 7 November, up until around noon
on 8 November, after which the predictions become significantly poorer. The
correlations between observed and predicted log RMS  is 0.77 during
7-8 November but drops to 0.38 during 9-10 November. For RMS  the correlations
for the two periods are 0.71 and 0.41, respectively. Studying the solar wind
data for other L1-spacecraft (WIND and SOHO) it seems that the ACE data have
a better agreement to the near-Earth solar wind during the first two days as
compared to the last two days. Thus, the accuracy of the predictions depends
on the location of the spacecraft and the solar wind flow direction. Another
finding, for the events studied here, is that the  and  models
showed a very different dependence on &lt;i&gt;B&lt;sub&gt;z&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt;. The  model is almost
independent of the solar wind magnetic field &lt;i&gt;B&lt;sub&gt;z&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt;, except at times when
&lt;i&gt;B&lt;sub&gt;z&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt; is exceptionally large or when the overall activity is low. On the
contrary, the  model shows a strong dependence on &lt;i&gt;B&lt;sub&gt;z&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/i&gt; at all times.</p>
</abstract>
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